Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: regli who wrote (67918)	12/3/2006 1:16:08 PM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Ah, the key phrase here is the "in past few years!" It's not the indices that vary as much as it is the respective time frame of the viewer. Could it be that the left side of your time frame had an equally sharp rise in the dollar as measured against the currencies of our major trading partners? I'm reminded of my bike riding buddies who describe certain loop rides as "all up hill". A ride that ends up in the same place by necessity includes equal amounts of up hill and down hill sections. Consider that the Atlanta index uses 1994=100 and the current index is 108 are we looking at a cyclical down cycle with a larger rising or flat trend or a larger falling trend with the Atlanta Fed cherry picking their base year, as you did with your included chart conveniently starting at 2001, the year which contained the ATH for the dollar index. Maybe what you need to do, to gain some perspective, is chart the mean over a longer time period. If we see 100 as the mean (just guessing) then an ATH of 120 would be offset by 80 at some point. If this holds (and I make no predictions---greater minds than mine have been humbled by currency movements) one could surmise the dollar is doing just what it needs to do to revert to the mean to maintain what is essentially a flat trend over time. Oh mon Dieu!