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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (74861)	12/5/2006 5:08:12 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<The average home price was $710,000 in the quarter, up from $679,000 a year ago.> More than a bit inconsistent with this statement: ``With these cancellations creating unintended specs, we could face increasing margin pressure as we seek to move these homes,'' Robert Toll said in the statement. Shrinking margin = lower pricing in my version of English. These bloated inventories will pressure prices, and take some time to work off, but to get the next leg down we need to see wider credit spreads in mortgages. So far it only seems to be subprime doing that. When does the Credit Suisse report for November come out?

To: ild who wrote (74861)	12/5/2006 6:16:13 PM
From: saveslivesbyday	Respond to of 110194

From CC Today Q: What have you done with price incentives? Toll: "We have not cut our prices or increased our incentives - we believe - as much as the other guys"

To: ild who wrote (74861)	12/5/2006 7:46:06 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

TOL has one of, if not the longest, delivery times. So it is not unreasonable to see their deliveries up in price compared to a year ago. Realistically, you are comparing a Jan 05 order to a Jan 06 order. You can look at each of TOL's markets and judge for yourself: quickdeliveryhomes.com Toll said Texas is strong. They have 35 specs there. quickdeliveryhomes.com Toll said NJ is D for dog. They have 38 specs there. quickdeliveryhomes.com AZ - 42 homes quickdeliveryhomes.com In fact, I went thru all the states and this is what I found. Looks like they have 612 specs right now. That seems to be a lot for a builder who says they do not build specs. AZ 42 CA 42 CO 9 CT 5 DE 7 FL 114 IL 18 MA 9 MD 24 MI 32 MN 3 NC 29 NJ 38 NV 63 NY 13 PA 37 RI 2 SC 12 TX 35 VA 78 612