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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr.Creosote who wrote (74942)	12/6/2006 7:38:47 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Thanks for reassuring me that I'm not insane<g>. Record low unemployment, generational low long term interest rates and ability of our financial institutions and government to continue expanding credit in a negative real interest rate environment benefiting US consumers and purchasers of assets. Simple stuff but others like to complicate it too much.. Housing bust well underway and one trick pony markets in FLorida tied to housing and construction have only 3% unemployment. Unreal but tells you the world doesn't revolve around housing as much as some people think..

To: Mr.Creosote who wrote (74942)	12/6/2006 8:59:04 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

"... and jobs are still being lost" Sorry, not with you on this one. In fact I think what's keeping this thing going is the job market. As long as people continue to have jobs they are able to spend what they earn and even borrow against their future earnings. They don't even have to borrow against the equity in their house. I don't know where you live but in my area EVERYBODY has a job and most are in the 6 figures. And believe me these guys love to spend, I see it daily. Jobs are not as bad as you guys make it sound. I do not know what constitutes "your area" but whatever it it I assure you it is multiple standard deviations from the norm. As long as people continue to have jobs they will spend what they earn.... Very true (and for the last 19 months far more). But we are going to lose 500,000 to 1,000,000 jobs in the housing bust IMO and that is just housing related jobs. More will be lost elsewhere. Although unemployment is low we are replacing manufacturing jobs with jobs at walmart and that is about ready to start happening to white collar jobs a well IMO. The jobs picture for an expansion is actually rather bleak. Wages have not kept up with inflation even in aggregate and that includes fat cats. The bottom 70% is getting hit hard and the bottom 50% murdered. A negative savings rate practically proves it. The S hits the fan when Walmart stops expanding rapidy and that is about to happen IMO. Mish