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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (219539)	12/8/2006 1:56:16 AM
From: justaview	Read Replies (8) \| Respond to of 275872

Ok, I will rant a bit. Intel's market share sliding is the thing of the past. The best CPUs have always won. Intel has the best products now and at least 3-5 years into the future. Hector is an incompetent fool who confused luck with genius. He will run this company into the ground. It would help the AMD fans to realize that AMD’s recent successes are due in large measure to a perfect streak of Intel screw ups -- Netburst, RDRAM and the biggest of them all the cloning of AMD64. So what’s Hector to do? Assume that Intel will continue to screw up forever, of course. All Hector had to do is to be customer centric. Meanwhile years of new core development were flushed down the toilet. How many of you know that a radical new core design has failed and was killed few weeks before the tape out. This is why all AMD can do now is to put four K7s on a die and pray. What would it take for you people to wake up? Would Hector’s sacking Dirk do it?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (219539)	12/8/2006 7:08:53 AM
From: THE WATSONYOUTH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Kind of a self squeezing for self preservation all while AMD is capacity constrained. I wonder what will happen in Q1 when AMD is no longer capacity constrained... Well.....it gets really interesting when AMD has (2) 5000W/week 65nm fabs up and running. The possibilities are staggering. Look ahead to 07 Q4. I figure the most outrageously optimistic requirement for AMD would be maybe 22 million chips that quarter (over 30% share). Assume a best case scenario whereby AMD has fab 36 at full 5000W/week capacity (likely) and the old fab maybe up to 3400W/week at 65nm and 300mm (not likely). So 8400W/week total capacity at 300mm and 65nm. Now...go 100% native quad core. At 283mm^2, there are perhaps 210 candidates per wafer. Even at only 35% yield, that's 73 good native quad core die per wafer. 8400W/week X 73 die/W x 13 weeks/Q = 8 million/Q. Let's allocate 1 million for servers, and the other 7 million for high end desktops. Of the remaining 14.9 million chips that did not yield quad core, probably 9 million will yield tri-core and maybe 5 million dual core. Mid range could be all tri core with only dual core at the very low end. That's 22 million total. This is just one scenario (probably a separate chip for mobile) but you get the picture. Am I missing something here? Why will AMD not do this? I wonder how quickly they can get the old fab converted to 300mm 65nm. Do they have the money to do it now? Man.....what possibilities. Of course, Intel would have to respond. THE WATSONYOUTH