Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rsi_boy who wrote (219591)	12/8/2006 8:17:58 AM
From: THE WATSONYOUTH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

It's been a while since AMD hasn't had the performance crown. Their good fortune now has a lot more to do with supply constraints of the Core2 than anything else. What happens in Q1/Q2 as Core2 fquency goes up and price comes down?. Supply constraints for Core 2?? How can that be? Why.... just last night, Elmer assured us CWM yields were outstanding leading to a lot of idle capacity. How do you explain that given your claim of supply constraints? Actually, I do think Intel will have a much better Q2 and Q3 07. Not sure about Q1 though. I think Intel should have been able to switch over to high volumes of CWM sooner. Based on their projected product mixes for Q4, Q1, and Q2, they can't. THE WATSONYOUTH

To: rsi_boy who wrote (219591)	12/8/2006 3:10:43 PM
From: pgerassi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Dear Rsi_boy: What will happen is that C2D frequency stays the same and the amounts of each bin goes up. But in Q1 and Q2, P4s lose even more ASP, more than offsetting the gains from C2D increases. What lowers the value of the inventory is that it is mostly P4s that lose value faster than P4 units are added leading to ever increasing inventory writeoffs. The alternative is shutting down fabs and lowering margins due to high fixed costs. Although things will be different when P4 and CD stop selling, that won't occur until Intel and AMD can make enough C2Ds and K8s to satisfy the whole market. And by the time that happens, AMD will be mostly converted to K8L in all the flavors sandwiching C2D between lower priced K8 and higher performing K8L, thus squeezing out C2D. Its what happened during the K6 era except that AMD will do it to Intel. Intel will face lowering ASPs and units. The only reason I can see for the slow C2D ramp is that even now, Intel can make more revenue per wafer with P4s than C2Ds. They need this time to get better at making C2Ds than they are at making P4s. As their C2D yields go up, they will make fewer P4s and CDs. Given the large amount of CD and P4 in inventory, when the revenue per wafer of C2D is higher than P4 or CD, they will switch over quickly. The longer that takes, the worse it will be for Intel. And that is before Fusion or Bulldozer. Pete