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Biotech / Medical : analysts and calls -- ML -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tuck who wrote (219)	12/8/2006 4:45:41 PM
From: tom pope	Respond to of 238

Unanswered? Deafening silence. Believe it or not, this is what I pull up for CBST: Merrill Lynch Investment Opinion Merrill Lynch Investment Opinion is currently unavailable. We're sorry for any inconvenience this may cause. (I'll phone my guy on Monday to see what gives. It may be a review is taking place)

To: tuck who wrote (219)	12/8/2006 4:51:53 PM
From: tom pope	Respond to of 238

Weird - this is what they wrote on 11/27, reiterating Buy: October Cubicin sales show modest growth Cubicin sales grew modestly in October after a lull during the last week of September, based on NDC data. NDC reported sales of $17 MM, or $803,000 per day in October, which was up 6% and 1% sequentially, respectively. Historically, October is the weakest month of sales in 4Q, with an average decline of 1.1% for all IV antibiotics, so the modest rise in absolute sales and daily sales rate is somewhat encouraging. Based on the NDC sales data, we are maintaining our estimates for 2006 and still believe Cubist can hit its guidance of $190mn-195mn in Cubicin sales for 2006. But if sales do not show stronger growth in November or December, sales could fall short of guidance. Continued steady growth expected Antibiotics do not typically have steep launch curves or steep inflections following a label expansion. Instead, growth is typically steady and persists for 3-5 years as physicians get comfortable using a new antibiotic. We continue to expect solid growth for Cubicin over the next 3 – 5 years towards our peak sales estimate of $400 MM - $500 MM. But because of seasonality and recent softness, it may take 3-5 months for better sales growth trends to emerge again. Promotional materials still not available Cubicin sales continue to grow following the label expansion for bacteremia and endocarditis despite its new promotional materials including the expanded FDA label and recent publication in the New England Journal of Medicine not yet being approved by FDA. We would expect the availability of additional promotion ammunition to help Cubist’s sales force stimulate additional growth. Expectations low, seasonal strength possible in 4Q Following 3Q sales that were below projections, we believe expectations for Cubicin sales and growth are at a low during what is typically a seasonally strong quarter for IV antibiotics, especially Cubicin. We believe that if Cubicin shows continued growth in 4Q, it will improve investor sentiment and help the stock. However, 1Q is typically a seasonally weak period and we would expect 2007 guidance to include flat QoQ growth for 1Q07 over 4Q06, which may disappoint some investors, but should not be a surprise.