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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: THE ANT who wrote (12294)	12/11/2006 9:41:13 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217901

Klaser, I am smelling a rat! rates went down: no growth. Government opened wallet for Lula to win election: no growth! Brazil Economists Lower 2006 GDP Forecast to 2.8% As Brazil doesn't do a Hernan Buchi (the Chilean that reformed its economy) it is languishing. This is the beginning of a stagnation period which the country can't go out of it!! Brazil may be living through a Dutch desease period. The economy may be solvent because agribusiness and materials have high prices which boosts currency up. If agribusiness and materials goes down, the economy will go down with a thud! Brazilian real will go down too. Brazil Economists Lower 2006 GDP Forecast to 2.8% (Update1) By Fabio Alves Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian economists lowered their 2006 forecast for economic growth for a fifth week as an appreciating currency hurt exporters' earnings and made imported goods cheaper, discouraging domestic producers. Economists reduced their 2006 forecast for gross domestic product to 2.8 percent from a previous estimate of 2.86 percent, according to the median estimate of about 100 economists in a Dec. 8 central bank survey released today. They held their 3.5 percent prediction for economic growth next year. ``A stronger currency makes the inefficiencies of the Brazilian economy more evident,' Carlos Cintra, manager of fixed-income trading at Banco Prosper, said in a phone interview from Rio de Janeiro. Brazil's real has gained 66 percent against the U.S. dollar since President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took office in January 2003, the best performance of the 16 most-traded currencies. Cintra expects Latin America's largest economy to expand 2.7 percent this year. Brazil's economy expanded 3.2 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, compared with 1.2 percent in the second quarter, the government said Nov. 30. Inflation Brazilian economists also lowered their inflation forecasts for this year and next. They reduced their estimate for inflation in 2006 to 3.11 percent from a previous estimate of 3.15 percent, the survey showed. Consumer prices will rise 4.16 percent over the next 12 months, compared with an earlier estimate of 4.18 percent, according to the weekly survey. The economists also cut their estimates for inflation in 2007 to 4.09 percent from 4.10 percent forecast a week earlier. The central bank set a 4.5 percent target for inflation in 2006, 2007 and 2008. In minutes of the last policy meeting, released Dec. 7, central bankers said they would monitor economic releases before deciding whether to reduce the size of interest rate cuts. The central bank's decision to cut the benchmark lending rate a half percentage point to 13.25 percent on Nov. 29 was challenged by three dissenters, who favored a smaller cut.

To: THE ANT who wrote (12294)	12/11/2006 9:50:02 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217901

There are bottlenecks that are visible, like infrastructure in the hands of the state. Roads, harbors, electricity generation and transmission. But there are worse bottlenecks that are invisible. The air traffic congestion deblacle is of African proportions. No one was exposing those tyep of bottlenecks. But the infrastructure created by the military in the 70's, like the ait traffic system is dismall and may point to several other invisible bottlenecks. What makes me pessimist is seeing the reaction of the government for the debacle. Instead of reasserting itself, the monkeys took over the zoo!! Civil servants sizing the opportunity to vent their grievenaces and creating the chaos we've seen is only seen in Nigeria!!

To: THE ANT who wrote (12294)	12/11/2006 10:04:05 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217901

I am looking to the country under three different perspectives now: One sector agribusiness and materials can provide growth 2 to 2.5%. BY itself, it can' answer to a growth of 4 to 5%. That because the service sector is big in Brazil. If we don't boost, significanlty, efficiency and productivity growth in the service sector, which answers for a big part of the Brazilian economy, the growth is pulled only by the agribusiness and materials sector. The Brazilian service sector depends a mix of: people (with education and who grew up unused to failure) technology (cheap and with educated people to make use of it) government facilitation (des-buraucratization) The three of them are lacing. Pople used to failure can't see a different way of doing things in a better way. They don't know what a better way is. You can overwhelm people with cheap technology, but if youstill need a piece of paper wuith foru rubber stamps, a phococopy of electrciity bill to prove the address you're giving is true, Brazil is DOA!!! Third, we look to industry: as long as Brazil keeps their labor law, which was copied from the Carta del Lavoro of Mussolini, plemented by a fascist dictator and embraced like the Quram by the local Shiites that controls labor in Brazil we are Fucked. With a Capital F of course. We surely world beaten in food and non-food agriculturals, but that will e it. 2.5% growth tops. If agribusiness goes down, there's nothing to take the slack. OECD: Brazil's economy relies significantly on education MENAFN - 11/12/2006 The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in a survey of the Brazilian economy, that the future of the country's economy relies exclusively on education to achieve major productivity gains, AFP reported. The survey said that the shortage of human capital is the single most important obstacle to productivity growth, and that poor education indicators were more a problem of educational quality rather than of funding. The OECD's survey said that Brazil's potential for growth without overheating was now rather low at about 3.0-3.5 percent per year. It added that Brazil had to pursue reforms to do about five points better, implying growth of 8.0 percent, to catch up in the next quarter of a century.