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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kris b who wrote (75211)	12/10/2006 7:51:35 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Those are indeed the correct questions Kris. If junk spread blowouts related to sub-prime garbage spreads to include higher up junk and then to investment grade spreads, stocks will feel it. Mish

To: kris b who wrote (75211)	12/10/2006 9:38:47 PM
From: bart13	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

The bank credit growth slowed down to 3.7% in Q3 dow from 11.8% rate of growth in Q2. It is 219% drop in growth rate. Substantial slowdown in my books. The $ 64.000 question is will the contagion in sub-prime spread to the investment grade paper, and if, how fast. Will it cause the general credit/liquidity contraction? When will the general economy take the financial speculation down with it? We're using different data sources which have differing data definitions, different ways and time periods for calculating change rates, and I seldom address or track in detail the sub prime issues and dangers at least publicly... so its not a surprise that the comparisons are hugely different. And the credit crunch/crash danger is unquestionably there, and that's one of the reasons I read Mish and others. Overall, the Fed has been moving virtually sideways for almost a year (the thin red line) and therein lies much of the mixed signal issue in my book.