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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skywatcher who wrote (5299)	12/12/2006 11:50:51 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 24232

From the above (12/12/06) article that Neuroil posted: latimes.com The nation's major oil field, Cantarell, is declining rapidly because of age. Production is down nearly 15% through the first 10 months of the year -- more than twice the rate of decline predicted by Pemex officials last year. The company's worst-case projections show production plummeting to about 520,000 barrels a day by the end of 2008 -- a nearly 70% freefall from October's average output of 1.65 million barrels a day. As I have repeatedly pointed out, IMO all four of the current super giants--Ghawar; Cantarell; Burgan and Daqing--are in decline or crashing. Unlike the operators of the other three fields, Saudi Aramco has not admitted to a decline at Ghawar, but their total 12/06 production is about 7% below their 12/05 production, and they seem to be coming up with a constantly changing set of reasons to explain their declining production. The absolutely best case for Ghawar is that it is producing one-third water--after being redeveloped with horizontal wells. This is not a stable situation. Once the water hits the horizontal wells, you are looking at a production crash. IMO, that is what is happening today at Ghawar. Deffeyes estimated that the world had consumed half of its conventional crude + condensate (C+C) reserves as of 12/05. Therefore, the most likely decline year was 2006, and that is what we are seeing. Depending on how fast production is falling in the fourth quarter, world C+C production will probably be down by 0.5% to 1.0% (year over year average). 12/05 to 12/06 production will probably be down by close to 2%. Based on Deffeyes' estimate, the world, at the end of 2006, was about 53% depleted, and we consumed about 2.7% of all remaining conventional C+C reserves in 2006. Note that the initial Lower 48 decline, the first two years after it peaked, averaged less than 1% per year. Based on Khebab's plots, I picked 2006 as the most likely year for the beginning of a production decline in Saudi Arabia. The year over year average decline will probably be about 4%, with the 12/05 to 12/06 decline being about 7%. I estimate that Saudi Arabia is now about 60% depleted, and I estimate that in 2006 they consumed about 4% of their remaining conventional C+C reserves. Excluding the prior swing producer, Texas, insofar as I know no large producing region with a Qt of 60 Gb or more has shown sustained production increases after the 50% of Qt mark. Saudi Arabia is declining at the same point at which Texas started declining--after crossing the 57%/58% mark. Those who are predicating higher world oil production and higher Saudi oil production are predicting that we which we have never before seen in any comparable large producing region, and the early production data are precisely supporting the HL models. Furthermore the data are showing, as I predicted, lower exports. Saudi Arabia alone is probably exporting 13% less oil in 12/06 than in 12/05. westexas on Tuesday December 12, 2006 at 10:44 AM EST theoildrum.com