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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (75334)	12/11/2006 8:10:29 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 110194

mudturtle@the Rand and HMY -- trotsky, 16:35:08 12/11/06 Mon the important thing is not the Rand per se, but the Rand gold price. the Rand gold price chart is one of the most bullish looking gold charts at present, see: 1-year chart of Gold in Rand this is imo a running correction, and if this interpretation is correct, we could see a pretty sizeable run (whether due to gold going up, or the Rand going down, or another favorable combination of the two i don't know. i only know that this chart formation has an extremely high probability for bullish resolution). the long term target i mentioned for HMY is based on a weekly multi-year chart. as i mentioned at the time of posting it, between $17 and $19 is a layer of extremely strong resistance, which has rejected the stock's advances for the past 5 years. it was not to be expected that it would be easily penetrated. nevertheless, the resulting chart formation which could alternately be seen as a complex h&s or a cup-and-handle type formation does look long term bullish. IF the resistance layer is broken, the target would be about approx. $32 (not 27). this is simply the distance from head to neckline added to the neckline ($19 plus $13, as the head made its low at $6). this is just very basic t/a - it's NOT a prediction, but a 'what if' scenario. this becomes the target IF and when the resistance is broken, not before. i personally believe it will eventually happen, but i certainly don't know when it will happen. if the recent large triangle in USD gold resolves in a manner comparable to its predecessors in the 1970's bull market, then sooner rather than later. otoh, it's always possible that gold will suffer a bigger mid cycle correction, in which case it could take some time. however, it is also not necessary to make any predictions regarding that, since the support/resistance levels are pretty much well established. the resolution, when it happens, will be obvious. stockcharts.com @emerging market bubbles -- trotsky, 15:43:20 12/11/06 Mon India's stock market just broke its recent uptrend line. yet another red flag.

To: mishedlo who wrote (75334)	12/11/2006 8:43:35 PM
From: kris b	Respond to of 110194

"It will work, but timing it precisely is very difficult." I know it will work...eventually, but in 20 years I will be five feet under. The wave is too long for ones life. "Nor does Prechter seem to understand that gold is likely to rise in deflation" Gold might rise in deflation, but it all depends on how bad things get. Cash will rise even more in this scenario. "Those that were betting on a Nascrash in 1998 were correct so to speak, but wiped out." I was one of them. Shorted to early, underestimated stupidity of the masses. "These pissing matches and grudges and verbal attacks and especially putting words into people's mouths that were simply NEVER said, are exactly why some of the best posters have left SI." Why do you waste your energy trying to teach monkeys how to think? The only thing that matters is who is going to make more money by the middle of next year, inflations or deflations. Who cares what your opponents think, as long as you make more money following your ideas then they do, you are right and they are wrong. Don't be a Don Quijote, you can't fight every windmill in your way.

To: mishedlo who wrote (75334)	12/11/2006 8:55:15 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

'.. are exactly why some of the best posters have left SI.' Ever think they left because they were wiped out by a combination of the tech crash, too bearish in the 2003 up move and too early betting against the next bubbles they expected to crash like NASDAQ and thought they were now being smart by getting ahead of the curve? Yes I follow charts like a hawk for short to intermediate term moves, don't trust swings in the stock market in either direction as it is nothing more than a casino and I deem completely irrelevant what the perpetual bulls or perpetual bears are always trying to relay to me or the public.. But I respect most the signals in key indexes or stocks to tell me what is going on at least in the next several months. Long term a prolonged consolidation in the overall stock market at these levels speaks volumes as to what the future holds IMHO and none of us is big enough to change that but some of us will be smart enough to recognize it is what is and move on within the parameters of the game.. Just from my own observation yes 'K' wave has some merit but only from a rapid move up in long term rates. Take the 10 yr treasury to 8%+ within 12 months and we have our debt cleansing depression. Even with the economy slowing down and housing crashing there is still a 50/50 chance the feds next move is up sometime next year. All because of inflationary pressure, possible dollar collapse and a major backup in long term rates Bernake fears most.. You must ponder why unemployment remains so low and the stock market at record highs when the yield curve is inverted for six months and housing bust underway for a year now.. Yes it will get worse for housing and foreclosures and housing starts and housing related jobs but I bet that is what Bernake and co wanted all along.