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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: snowdog who wrote (48056)	12/12/2006 1:28:47 PM
From: JimisJim	Respond to of 109022

snowdog... yes, the backlog is important, but must keep an eye on order rates and/or cancellations in OSX... I remember well in '98-'99 the backlog drying up quickly after a slew of cancellations when oil dipped as low as $9/bbl... fortunately it was brief and the damage to OSX was short lived, but it was breathtaking how quickly it happened... For OSX, I like to keep a constant pulse on order rates, backlog and cancellations (if any)... fortunately for me, my work/job gives me ringside seats to that sort of data. After re-reading my post about gas, I have to say it sounded more negative than I meant for it -- short term, I am biased toward standing pat or lightening because I don't have all of the capex data, and more importantly for ST, we'll likely see some milder weather for a week or so in key heating markets before that cold snap (if true) hits for the holidays... Longer term, I have a built-in bias in favor of nat gas, because the consumption equation in the West US is changing (maybe already has) to the point where we no longer worry about winter heating bills as much as we worrry about power generation for summers -- natural development since we've had 10 milder-than-normal winters in a row, and a series of scorching summers with rolling power blackouts... I will continue to play gassers ST/IT/LT... Now, I have to go scream as I just noticed the PF is spurting blood from AAPL, ADBE, CHK, VLO and my miners (AUY, SLW, GRS, CCJ)... ;-) Jim