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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: westpacific who wrote (75477)	12/13/2006 5:51:12 AM
From: bart13	Respond to of 110194

But what sort of deflation is more the question. Good question, and the straight answer is I don't know. Most of my forecast charts don't go out that far, but the ones that do like the G7 ones are looking pretty flat to down a bit GDP wise. "2002 lite" is a broad answer, especially as far as how the media may attempt to portray it at worst. Whether the NBER will call a recession isn't at all a certainty to me too, regardless of whether we have one then or are in one now, or both. I call it stagflation, even though I also consider stagflation a bit of a bogus word since it takes attention away from the true primary cause of inflation. I think we can pretty much count on continuing BLS BS on the CPI, and a few more folk waking up to the reality and promise of various hard assets, whether PMs or not. Best current guess is a fairly decent buy point on PMs around June/July '07 after a drop to below the $550-560 area. I expect a minimum of a 13% drop in the various stock indexes and possibly as high as 21% - on a nominal basis. Add another 8-10 on for inflationary loss.