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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gopher Broke who wrote (220244)	12/13/2006 10:43:46 AM
From: DRBES	Respond to of 275872

$120 in about three years...sounds about right...conservative...but about right :)))

To: Gopher Broke who wrote (220244)	12/13/2006 11:11:14 AM
From: jspeed	Respond to of 275872

This is a good blog article. As far as technical stuff, there is a lot of meat there. The main thesis that the two companies are mirroring each other is pretty solid. Although he undersells the graphics difference. In my opinion, that's going to be a major divergence. I also fully expect AMD to make their 30% unit marketshare goal in 2007 while he seems to be more conservative there. AMD can sell to their capacity now with a less competitive product. Why would they not be able to do that in 2007? To me, the only real question is how much can AMD raise their ASP based on increased competitiveness of Barcelona. As far as building another Fab, I've posted here before that I don't think that is necessary. AMD may want to do it if they bring more of their production in house. But it is not integral to their business plan. They have enough capacity to service the majority of the x86 market if they build out fab36 and fab38 fully.

To: Gopher Broke who wrote (220244)	12/13/2006 12:56:28 PM
From: cruzbay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Gopher Broke: Thanks a lot for posting a link to the remarkable scientia blog. His comparison of the future roadmap for AMD and Intel ("Walking into a mirror") was very detailed, informative, and even-handed. I did like this choice comment, though: "Intel's 4-way server chipset won't really pull Intel even with AMD. Clearly, this will be a stopgap until Intel can release a new socket with integrated memory controller in 2009. However, Intel has no choice but to offer a stopgap chipset since the P4 Xeon will be completely outclassed by K8L." His other entries appear far harsher on Intel, although from my perspective this is much more self-inflicted and competitive reality than bias. The graphs in the Supercomputing article show a clear trend of ascendency on AMD's part, along with a huge Intel decline. The analysis of Intel's Q3 results ("Intel's bluff") is must reading for investors in either company. I would strongly encourage all AMD longs to read his blog in its entirety, and the bashers would do well to read it as well, although a profound depression may result. All: Enjoy! scientiasblog.blogspot.com