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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (75741)	12/15/2006 12:31:27 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

The stock market rising is proof of nothing other than financial speculation is rampant. If you insist, globalization is indeed helping corporate profits but in reality the bulk of earnings are in two sectors only 1) energy - let's call those real earnings 2) finance - call that what you want The Naz made a new high in March of 2000 was that proof the dotcom era was on solid footing? This point actually came up in my podcast with Eric yesterday. He noted that the homebuilder index peaked exactly in summer of 2005 right at the peak of the housing bubble. finance.yahoo.com Hmm it seems TOL peaked after the peak. Here is the homebuilder index finance.yahoo.com Exactly what was that index saying in summer of 2005? Where was the 6 month lead time of the markets? Pointing to the stock market as proof things are OK is not necessarily a smart thing to do. There is no real proof for the myth that the stock market looks 6 months ahead. The stock market measures a propensity for investors to take on risk and to speculate. How did the Nikkei get to 40,000? When it got there exactly what did it prove? So you tell me. What does the stock market prove right now? Anything meaningful or the willingness to speculate? I suggest that if it means anything at all it is the latter. If you want to say just trade the charts and forget if it means anything then I am certainly OK by that. But you keep pointing to the stock market as if it means something fundamental. It means about as much fundamentally as the naz did in March 2005, as Broadcom hitting 250 in August of 2000, as the homebuilder index did in summer of 2005 and TOL did in september 2005. Quit mixing speculation with fundamentals. That is my suggestion. Offering speculation as proof that the fundamentals are OK is not going to cut it. Mish