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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (75744)	12/15/2006 12:19:38 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

My point all along is that there has been a massive loot of whatever wealth the middle class had, and the Pig Man/Risklove appartatus is a big part of it. For you to be focusing on deflation and engaging in circular debates on it, when in fact there is and has been serious inflation, is just what the Boyz want to hear to finish the job. In the end we will have a country like Brazil (only with nicer houses), and I'm certain that a credit rating that supports a 4.50% 10 year Treasury will not be even remotely deserved.

To: mishedlo who wrote (75744)	12/15/2006 4:50:59 PM
From: bond_bubble	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

No doubt you can point to some weather related stuff with grains, and insurance costs. But is hiking rates going to solve either one of those? If so how? Nice try Mish. If there was not so much demand for energy, ethanol would not play such a crucial role - and hence the grain demand would have been lower. For you to hunker down the "weather report" only highlights your stupid deflation theory. Ofcourse, it is because of stupid view like yours, the credit inflation is not highlighted by anyone in the media as a cause. Also, the OJ report from CNN, NYTimes said that there will 10% less oranges harvested because of freezing weather in florida. Again, it sounds similar to your stupid one time weather report. But, if you go to this summer florida orange harvest (link provided below), it will say 30% of Valencia oranges in Florida WERE NOT HARVESTED (that is different from weather spoiling the crop isnt it?). Any why did the harvesters not show up? Read the article and you will see that the construction industry (the consumption industry) have been paying higher wages!! Again, I'm sure you will rather believe in weather spoiling the crop etc. than the credit inflation preventing orange harvest at reasonable price!! And now, lot of people last year lost money because they could not harvest their crops - how many are going to produce this year??? Two days ago, I posted Sean Corrigan's article on commodities. He said, Nickel production for the number 1 producer is down 15% this year - not because of lack of investment. Rather they are going to invest $1B (that is billion) for a couple of years just to upgrade their existing plants and operations (no new mines)!! And I'm sure that cost is not going to be 1B next year. It will be atleast 1.5B next year!! You think Ni prices are going to fall? I remember, you saying steel capacity is excessive two years ago. Last year, iron ore prices soared 71%!! This year benchmark prices are not yet signed. But I'm sure it will be atleast 20% higher!! (because Chinese can flood the US market now as the trade bans have been lifted - China wil be willing to pay more as their labor costs will compensate them on the selling price!!). I'll bet crude, cu, metals are ALL going to rise next year. Hell, I posted 2 links for you where it said, crude soared right in the depression (Jim Grant and CR link) - inspite of no-peak-oil-theory in 1930s), and you still misunderstand credit inflation. travel.nytimes.com miracoalition.org The problem is reaching crisis proportions, food growers say. As much as 30 percent of the year's pear crop was lost in Northern California, growers estimate. More than one-third of Florida's Valencia orange crop went unharvested, Regelbrugge said. In New York, apples are rotting on the trees, because workers who once picked the fruit have fled frequent raids by Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents, said Maureen Marshall, an apple grower in Elba.