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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr.Creosote who wrote (75840)	12/16/2006 7:10:15 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

Nice post Mr. C Well worth a rec. You get mine Mish

To: Mr.Creosote who wrote (75840)	12/16/2006 9:20:35 PM
From: ggamer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

People in SF Bay Area have plenty of cash and the job market, like you mentioned, is very good in Bay Area as well. Homes get listed and people are buying homes. I also know people working in high tech sales and they are telling me that sales are booming in the US and many other countries abroad. I think you are right by saying that no one can really predict what the markets are going to do next. I am sure the markets are going to crash one day, but one group's loss is another groups win. When the young guy took the wrong move and lost $5B in his hedge fund, the article that I read mentioned 5 other funds betting against the guy who won big. So I am sure money is not going to disappear, it is going to go from one group to another. When oil is hot, middle east and people working in the oil industry get rich and we the consumer lose. The opposite is true when price of oil goes down. I think by all this hedging and derivatives, money just flows from one group to another. I really do not have a lot of experience in any of these fields and I do appreciate all the smart and wise people who post on this thread. I am just wondering what to do with my investment funds at this moment.

To: Mr.Creosote who wrote (75840)	12/17/2006 9:43:18 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

<always been a poor class> Here's is some data on US income disparity, it's the widest ever. epi.org Don't know if you ever read my blog, but had a through presentation on this rich-poor aspect and the Gini coefficient. It one of the more important blog posts, I've ever written. I don't feel the US is an advanced nation model any more is part of my conclusion. wallstreetexaminer.com So for sake of your "always been a poor class" argument, let's just put them (the bottom quintile) off the radar screen. They are history as far as consumption goes, with only 8% of the US total, just Brazil like subsistence levels. That's not the group I've ever talked about, period. The top quantile is responsible for 39% of US consumption, and as you have suggested, they (or at least most of them), seem to be doing fine?, maybe?, sort of? Up to now, they have been getting better off, as the Bubbles have padded their wallets. So that leaves the middle three quantiles, between 20-80, who are responsible for 53% of US consumption. Is that group doing fine? Maybe? sort of? It's actually those folks that have the big debt serf mortgages, and declining housing, not the very poor. I think the evidence there is getting very clouded, and if there is a big slip underway, it is unlikely the top quantile can hold the fort, unless they can loot the income from somebody: more globalization? more plutocrat friendly tax cuts? more Bubbles to monetize? Maybe find something productive to do besides being parasites or shufffling finance? Or just some how keep this deal making racket going bloomberg.com news.yahoo.com We agree (from your quote above) that the lowest quantile is history for more of this, and personally I think the second lowest quantile is already Brazili-fried, so who's left? Maybe the 60-80 group can be milked some more, but will be tough. There might also still be some labor to be squeezed and Brazili-fried in the bottom quadrant of the top quantile group I suppose?