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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly Buy and Sell Set Ups -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hoopsville who wrote (10705)	12/17/2006 2:59:35 PM
From: Carl Worth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13449

in looking through their closed trades for the last couple of months, it seems their results aren't especially stellar: for november and thus far in december, they have closed 11 trades of the initial 100% position for a net average loss of 15%...even without the disastrous trade of NUVO, it would be 10 closed trades with an average loss of 8.35% they have closed 14 trades at the first target, where they take 75% of the trade off, for an average gain on those trades of 9.54% they have closed 3 trades where they were running with the remaining 25% of the original position, at an average of 2.83% if X = the normal starting principal, you would have 10(.9165)X + 14(.75X)1.0954 + 3(.25X)1.0283, or 21.43 X from an initial investment of 21.25X, almost no gain at all, and that's not even including the NUVO trade, which would make november and december to date a loss for october, the results aren't much different, as you have 9 trades closed for an average loss of 10.72% on the original 100% position you have 14 trades where 75% of the original trade was taken off at an average gain of 9.14% you have 4 trades where the remaining 25% of the original trade was sold at an average loss of 0.75% once again, with X as the original principal amount, you have 9(.8928)X + 14(.75X)1.0914 + 4(.25X)0.9925, or 20.49X from an initial investment of 20.5X, or break even before commissions in each case, you do have some remaining 25% positions that have gains and could eventually be closed for reasonable appreciation, but the bulk of the money is off the table with the closure of 75% of any successful trade at gains averaging around 9%, whereas the losses also average 9% or better, so it appears they are mostly spinning their wheels this of course is only 2.5 months, but in looking back through the track record, it appears to be consistent with their history, and october thru present has been a very good trading period JMHO, but i think this thread comes up with better trades than the gorilla <g>