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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank who wrote (76523)	12/19/2006 8:08:49 AM
From: Dennis Roth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206169

>> posters here thought it was going to be 80 F in Ohio when the probability was 80% AN. << I find the CPC temperature probability outlooks unsatisfactory because they give the odds of above or below normal temperature but don't tell you how much the excursion from the norm will be. A prediction of above normal temperature will be equally correct if it turns out to be one degree F above normal or fourteen degrees above normal. But the difference between 1 degree and 14 degreess makes a big difference in gas consumption. I prefer to look at forecasts like this, cdc.noaa.gov , that stick some numbers on the deviation from the norm. The 850mb projections are good for spotting trends but aren't surface predictions. cdc.noaa.gov Surface predictions are trickier. Predictions of surface temperature aren't worth much out past 144 hours. Predictions out to 384 hours are available and are updated 4 times a day, but the far out forecasts change greatly from run to run as small errors in initial conditions propagate through the models. nco.ncep.noaa.gov Personally, I'm a long term investor and I don't jump in and out of some of my favorites like SU or ECA based on the latest GFS model run for hour 384. nco.ncep.noaa.gov It will change with the next model run. Those who follow the CPC 8 to 14 day temperature probability outlooks daily should have noticed how frequently they change and can flip completely over in just a few days. Taking long range temperature predictions seriously is like taking the December forecasts for the 2007 Hurricane season seriously. Message 23085482