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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: regli who wrote (60776)12/18/2006 10:36:30 PM
From: RealMuLan  Respond to of 116555
 
Yeah, read a Chinese article, China is discussing about setting up an independent agency to manage foreign reserves. I doubt anything will happen in short time. Whatever financial measurement will not solve the root problem that caused the huge amount of the foreign reserve. This thing is rooted in trade policy, so have to start from there!

Plus, what if some one invest those money and lost big time?? just like what they did in copper/soy bean ... trading?? Who will be responsible?? The crooks in those international investment banks and hedge funds are greedu preditors who deliberately setting up traps for China to jump! China will use what to return ALL those foreign debt?? and use what to return the hot money when they want to leave?? There are a lot of issues involved here, just like privatizing the US social security fund, the stake is too high, so the decision will have to be really careful!

In order to solve the problem once and for all, China should have scraped all those preferential treatment for foreign investment a long time ago, should have tax Chinese enterprises and foreign/JV enterprises at the same rate a long time ago, should have allow Chinese individuals exchange foreign currencies freely to certain amount (from this May, they start to allow $20k/each person/each year), should have taken away most of the export rebates... this list can go on and on.

That said, the change in trade regulation from Nov. should produce some result by next quarter.

And again, my guess is that China's US$ debt is much lower than most people expected