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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (76159)	12/20/2006 1:49:07 AM
From: pogohere	Respond to of 110194

Thanks. I am persuaded by John Williams at shadowstats.com that we are already past the unemployment rates of the early 80s. Given the credit explosion that has already occurred, I think things get far worse before there is even a prayer that they stabilize or get better.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (76159)	12/20/2006 3:07:00 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

So much now depends on the direction of long term interest rates. Take them up 300 basis points within a 12-18 month period and it could be real bad with plunging asset values of 30-50% across the board. Keep them low for 5-10 years and the excesses get easily absorbed IMHO with 2 minor recessions at most..