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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Johnston who wrote (76163)	12/20/2006 10:02:51 AM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

'Between 1966 and 1982 the market lost about 75% of its value in real terms' I believe they were only talking about decade 1970-79 performance rather than the cycle as a whole. I wonder how they stack up when you factor in changes in the dollar during the same cycle into the mix? When you look at true loss of purchasing power for the US consumer this decade you can tack on near 40% loss in the dollar to the 40-50% increase in cost of living. No wonder why a hotel room in Europe today seems incredibly expensive to us Americans.

To: Mike Johnston who wrote (76163)	12/20/2006 1:04:58 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Respond to of 110194

That is totally wrong, what talk show was that ? It seems to me they are spewing nonsense. Between 1966 and 1982 the market lost about 75% of its value in real terms. That is negative return year after year for 16 years. Where did they get +6% being worse than 70's ? If we assume that the market has so far this decade lost 40% in real terms, then 6% return for the rest of the decade would bring the return for this decade to -30%. That is still much better performance than 30's and 70's. Well maybe they are taking into account the hyperinflation of the 70s and therefore the "real terms" gets skewed to the downside. But in terms of market crashes, this 2000-current scenario was right up there with the 70s, with 2002 practically mirroring the 73/74 period and a flatline ever since. Thats as bad as it gets. Now where do we go from here is the question. Its amazing the number of bears who think we now have to fall from these "all time highs". Also, stocks are not expensive. Shorting here is a suckers bet.