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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Johnston who wrote (76361)	12/21/2006 11:39:21 PM
From: bart13	Respond to of 110194

Is it possible that as the debacle begins to unfold the Fat Cats in cooperation with CB's engineer a desperate attempt to blow many bears out of the water with for example a massive one day 50 dollar selloff in gold to keep "no inflation story" alive for a little bit longer ? No question that its quite possible, and it might not even be triggered by CBs. In 1975, when gold was moving down from almost $200 to just above $100, there was a minus $10.60 move in one day and quite a few that were down moves of over $5.00. There weren't many more of that relative size until gold went above $200 and stayed there in 1978, and then they were pretty frequent in 1979, culminating in the $113 drop on Jan 22, 1980 - the day after the peak. I do expect daily moves up & down of over $100 once the bull shifts into its next phase too, for what its worth. By the way, one of my existing charts that has an old algorithm behind it shows a large potential of a big drop next April... and fair warning that all of my prediction algorithms can neither take black swans nor politicians, etc. into account, and are only based on US monetary and interest rate and inflation data plus various time lags.