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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elmer Phud who wrote (3281)	12/23/2006 2:40:17 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

That's your contention but I don't think anyone's buying it. When the market is above his buy point he advises a dollar cost average approach for new money. If the market dips below that level you fully invest your new money. Not very complicated. You are correct about one thing. It is not very complicated, but you seem to miss quite a bit. At 1411, the market is up 11% since 1267 on Aug 11, 2006. A dollar cost average would have about a third the money in with only the first 1/12th position seeing the full 11% gain. Thus, DCA has you up about 2% plus the money rates or about 3% total. Compare that to a lump sum in at 1267 that is up 11%. Fully invested, with a lump sum to get there since that is what his model portfolio recommends is good advice. This is the advice people like Hulbert or I measure when we calculate returns back to any date. Dollar cost average new money to fully invested over 12 months has you up 3% Sitting in cash waiting for 1250 that has yet to show since the date I chose, which Pete thinks is good advice, has you up a bit over 1%. Now we have three possibilities that people can claim Brinker recommends. It blows me away how so many smart people let him have it both ways... be it not putting the up to 50% of cash reserves into QQQQ model portfolios while recommending it month after month in the newsletter to the older parlor trick that uses dollar cost average and buy dips with new money. Kirk