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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: jimmg who wrote (76583)12/25/2006 5:50:03 PM
From: Real Man  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
I'm a bear. I'm with you buying them calls, even though I have
a very different interpretation of what's transpiring in
the markets, and the economy, and am in agreement with Russ.
I interpret my stock
market calls as synthetic dollar shorts, given the all the
printing. I'll borrow to the hilt at fixed rates to buy as
many calls as I can - I think the Fed will bail me out.
It always does.
I'm going to borrow to the hilt to speculate at fixed rates.
The Fed is pushing real inflation higher than the rates.
It keeps the rates very low. So, the real cost of money is
negative compared to inflation. It only makes sense to
do what I'm doing, given Fed's actions. The other thing
I'm doing is borrowing at 0-2%, taking advantage
of some bank offers, and investing it in short-term treasuries
at 4.5%. That's free money, investing the profits in stock
market calls.
Thank you Ben! -g- I think what you're doing is right too!
But I disagree with you on interpretation.



To: jimmg who wrote (76583)12/25/2006 6:07:07 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
<focus on any little tidbit>

Are you referring to my last post suggesting the average consumer is down to fumes on liquidity and cash on hand? How would that constitute a "tidbit"?

As far as XMAS sales I have no comment, it will probably be mixed to so-so, but with COH, JWN and various Bully retailers doing fine. JSM probably shopped and borrowed enough to dig himself into even deeper hole. If it was a bust, that should be no surprise either.

<bears suffer from mild to severe clinical depression.>

My mental state is rather crisp and lucid, and quite alert I might add. You on the otherhand seem a bit comatase, like a deer at a highway crossing at night?



To: jimmg who wrote (76583)12/25/2006 6:11:42 PM
From: Real Man  Respond to of 110194
 
I listened to Russ over many years here on SI. He has been
very bullish on Gold stocks in 2001, right before HUI
took off from 35 to 328, where it is now. That's nice 1000%
rise. Then, he has been bullish on OIL stocks, and they
took off shortly afterwards, dramatically.
Then, Russ became bearish on
housing in 2004, and in 2005 Housing started falling sharply.
Now, Russ is bearish on stocks for a while, based on his views. I'm waiting to see what transpires in 2007. Overall, I
think Russ is a very wise investor, so I listen to him,
and that's all I do here on his thread.



To: jimmg who wrote (76583)12/25/2006 8:04:02 PM
From: Real Man  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
Message 23129449
This bear is capitulating. Mooooo -g-



To: jimmg who wrote (76583)12/26/2006 6:47:24 AM
From: Joe Stocks  Respond to of 110194
 
Storms help take wind out of US holiday sales - report
By Ilaina Jonas

NEW YORK, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Bad weather that kept shoppers away from the malls combined with a weak housing market to take some of the wind out of holiday sales, nationwide figures supplied by MasterCard Advisors revealed.

From the day after Thanksgiving through Dec. 24, adjusted retail sales, excluding automobiles, grew about 3 percent, compared with last year's 5.2 percent, according to sales figures captured by SpendingPulse, the retail data service provider for MasterCard Advisors.

The figures were adjusted to provide a comparison of the 2006 holiday season, comprised of 31 days, with the 2005 holiday season, comprised of 30 days. Unadjusted, national retail sales grew 6.6 percent in 2006, the figures showed.

"When you have a 30-day period, one extra shopping day does add quite a bit to the total season growth rate," said Michael McNamara, vice president of research and analysis for MasterCard Advisors.

"I think a lot of people were hoping that the end of the season would really bail out a lot of the apparel sectors," he said. "The disruptive weather didn't help."

In fact, warm weather wilted sales of cold-weather clothing, McNamara said. The weak housing market, which prevented home owners from taking out home equity loans also dragged down total retail sales, especially in furniture, he added.

Employment, however, was seen as a positive factor boosting sales, McNamara said.

The best overall performance was turned in by the U.S. Mountain region, with sales growing 8.2 percent despite a blizzard late in the shopping season, according to MasterCard Advisors.

Luxury mall owner Taubman Centers Inc.<TCO.N> closed Denver's Cherry Creek mall early on Wednesday and Thursday. But that only served to fuel shopper traffic on Friday and Saturday, when business was exceptionally strong, the company said.

The densely populated Northeast saw sales rise 7.9 percent above last year. But sales in the central Great Plains region limped along, up just 0.6 percent, while the West Coast saw sales decline by 1.7 percent because of inclement weather in the Pacific Northwest.

Holiday sales, especially during the final week, can have a material impact on an array of retailers including, Gap Inc. <GPS.N>, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. <WMT.N>, high-end handbag and accessories maker Coach Inc.<COH.N>, and department store operator Federated Department Stores Inc. <FD.N>

Buyers who couldn't make it to the malls booted up their computers and went shopping online, McNamara said.

"E-commerce was a pleasant surprise in the second half of the season," he said. Midway through, online sales grew by the mid-teens from last year, and online growth for the entire season was up by the high-teens.

Although the e-commerce figures were a bit lower than last year, McNamara cautioned against comparing growth rates because of the small base of the relatively recent mode of shopping.

Consumer electronics led the way as gifts in demand, the data showed. Luxury goods -- priced over $1,000 -- also were in high demand.

But diamonds didn't make luxury sales sparkle.

If you take luxury goods excluding jewelry, McNamara said, the increase would have been higher.

In general, men's apparel also sold well, as did footwear.

Sales of apparel for children and women, however, were weak but did not decline, he said.

At the lower end of the price spectrum, sales picked up toward the end of the holiday shopping season as retailers slashed prices to move merchandise. But overall, the higher end of the market outperformed the lower end.

"Generally you see those discounts kick in at the end of the season," McNamara said.

The dynamic is different for higher priced items.

"If someone is going to go out and buy their big gift, those items tend to go a little bit earlier, especially in consumer electronics, where people are worried about inventory running out," he said.

SpendingPulse uses MasterCard information to extrapolate total retail sales and the performance of the general retail economy.



To: jimmg who wrote (76583)12/26/2006 9:52:53 AM
From: Mike Johnston  Respond to of 110194
 
Jim, you seem to be confusing inflation with prosperity.

Are you aware that sometimes strong stock market is the symptom of economic collapse ?



To: jimmg who wrote (76583)12/26/2006 10:49:23 AM
From: John Vosilla  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
'What I find amazing is the selective interpretation of all data by the bears as an ominous warning sign of impending doom. No matter how bullish the fundamental news is, the bears always want to focus on any little tidbit that fit's their thesis of a crash in the financial markets.'

We need much higher long term rates. Now short term the market is very 'Euphoric' and wants everybody in before reversing course. That said most perma bears are so behind by now they hope to get back to even on the coming 'crash'.. Go to thehousingbubbleblog.com and you'll find so many hoping to buy property at 50 cents on the dollar that were out of the game during the boom.. I would imagine if you didn't own property and were heavily short the stock market without benefiting from the meteroic rise in gold the last 4-5 years you are way behind by now and it is a self fullfilling prophecy to have to be 'right'..