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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: pogohere who wrote (76661)12/26/2006 3:31:07 PM
From: jimmg  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 110194
 
Russ overstates the impact of pig men and bullies in my opinion. They aren't buying all of those Nikes and used autos at Carmax.

The activities of the top 15% of the economic strata are fairly immaterial. They can't force the price of energy or any other commodities higher. They can't corner the market on food, clothing, auto repairs, apartment rentals, home resales, hospital stays, prescription drugs. They don't shop at Walmart, Target, JC Penney, Sears/Kmart, Kohls. They don't eat at Olive Garden, Applebees, Cheesecake Factory, McDonalds, Wendys, etc.

There is a giant real economy that is mostly unaffected by pig men and bullies. The real economy is moved by consumer behavior of the vast middle class. This is the main point that I think Russ misses.

Way too much focus on pig men, bullies, da boyz, the Fed, coupon passes and fcb purchases.



To: pogohere who wrote (76661)12/26/2006 3:40:45 PM
From: russwinter  Respond to of 110194
 
<wouldn't it be ironic if this constituted a/the source for the domestic liquidity that would move bond rates lower and keep them low for a spell>

This theory might work except I also expect the US investment credit rating to get marked down as Bubbles leak. T-notes have also been the subject of speculative leverage and the "buy everything" trade.