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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 8bits who wrote (69460)	12/26/2006 8:50:30 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

market in the Bay Area is fairly varied in terms of supply/demand dynamics i have heard that kind of thing. but i think it will all go down horribly nonetheless. my understanding is Bay Area volumes are down 25-30% YoY, on very slight price increases. this is a classic precursor to a price drop. Exurbia SF Bay Area is definitely falling (Tracy, Brentwood, etc) it makes sense that the less desirable areas will fall first, just as they rose last. but they are just the canaries in the coal mine. the rest of the Bay Area, and California as a whole, will also be decimated (in the modern sense, not the Latin "one-tenth" sense). for an excellent zip-code-by-zip-code view of how the last SoCal boom/bust/boom played out from mid-80s to early 00's, see graphs in the paper titled "Has the Fire Burned Out?", accessible at the bottom of this page, starting around page 10: firstamres.com

To: 8bits who wrote (69460)	12/26/2006 11:01:07 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

don't you think you are seeing strength in the low end pricepoints for close-in areas in the bay area? Thats pretty consistent with other RE cycles in the down period is it not? Where the low end held the best. I think anybody trying to sell a 2 million dollar home, anywhere in the bay area is hurting now, even if it is in Hillsborough. But if you've got a $650K or $750K close-in house in a desirable area.... its holding. My friend bought on the cusp of the break in price points, I think. She paid 810... but the owner once wanted over 900 for sure, and the house was listed in the summer which meant 900+ was not the peak price. BTW have you looked into buying in East Palo Alto, that has got to turn and there are even more drug dealers than your place! Better prices too I think. I went to Ikea tonight there.