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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: andiron who wrote (76792)	12/28/2006 10:35:55 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 110194

That's possible, and it will, in Russ's scenario.

To: andiron who wrote (76792)	12/28/2006 2:36:31 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Generally, I disagree; given all the printing by the Fed, CRB, oil, gold, stocks, and interest rates will likely zoom again, while the dollar will likely drop back to 80. If the dollar drops below 80, and an uncontrollable rise in rates and the dollar fall starts, then we'll see a crisis. I don't know what gold will do initially - it could drop as low as 425, but eventually it will rise to at least be equal to the DOW (10000), unless we enter hyperinflation. Then the number of zeroes behind the price of gold, and DOW, will be a wild guess. 15? 22? 41? I agree with Russ's Brazilification thesis. So, I believe America eventually will go the path of Brazil, Zimbabwe, Ukrane, Hungary, Germany, and other Banana Republics that existed throughout history. I see way too many analogies in what's happening today in the US with what happened in these countries. The only difference is that US is the issuer of international currency. However, if the confidence in that currency faulters, the result of the selling will be much worse than in the above mentioned countries, not better, simply because other countries hold too many dollars as reserves! While India could be friendly, China, Russia, and the Middle East are not exactly politically friendly to the US.