Edwards faces a new set of hurdles
By Rob Christensen, Staff Writer
NEW ORLEANS - As he launches his second White House bid here today, John Edwards faces a different political landscape than he did three years ago when he was North Carolina's little-known freshman senator.
Last time, the Democratic primary was a wide-open affair, and Edwards intrigued some voters as a new face. This time, Edwards is a former vice presidential candidate who must contend with assumptions that New York Sen. Hillary Clinton is the favorite to capture the Democratic nomination and that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has eclipsed his fresh-faced appeal.
"Before Barack Obama, it was clear Edwards was going to be the biggest hurdle for Hillary to overcome and had the best shot at stopping her," said Chuck Todd, editor-in-chief of the Political Hotline, a Washington-based Internet newsletter. "Obama complicates his run. ... If it wasn't for Obama, I think we'd say this is a two-person race."
Edwards, 53, of Chapel Hill, enters the race with considerable assets. Polls show he is among the best known of the Democratic contenders after being on the national ticket in 2004 with Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry. Edwards, a successful trial lawyer before he entered politics, is the only announced Democratic hopeful who has been through the presidential marathon and has an organization. He seems likely to receive solid financial support from trial lawyers, and appears poised to pick up significant support from organized labor.
The Democratic nominee could be determined in January 2008, when caucus and primary voters in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina make their choices. The new early nominating schedule seems to favor Edwards, who has strong ties in some early battlegrounds.
Edwards is also the only Southerner in the race, with the possible exception of former NATO Gen. Wesley Clark, who is considering a run. The last Democrat from outside the South to win the the presidency was John F. Kennedy in 1960.
But Edwards has plenty of skeptics.
"He has got a lot of problems," said Allan Lichtman, an American University presidential scholar and Democratic Senate candidate in Maryland this year.
"He didn't do much for the Kerry-Edwards ticket. He came in with a lot of promise, but he didn't pan out. He lost the debate to Dick Cheney. He is going to be way outspent by Hillary Clinton. He doesn't have a natural base."
The Democratic primary can be viewed like the NCAA basketball tournament, said political analyst Charles Cook, publisher of The Cook Political Report, a Washington-based newsletter. In one bracket, everybody has penciled in Clinton. She has name recognition and a high-profile platform in the U.S. Senate, is a proven fundraiser and has a powerful political organization.
The question, Cook said, is who will survive to face Clinton in the opposing bracket.
"He's dealing, as all the candidates are, with the looming presidential campaign of Hillary Clinton and the recent excitement over Barack Obama," said Lee Miringoff, director of the New York-based Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which has done extensive presidential polling. "That having been said, there is still a following for his more progressive populism. He is certainly a force to be reckoned with down the road."
Edwards is announcing his campaign in New Orleans' Lower Ninth Ward, an area devastated by Hurricane Katrina. The location underscores Edwards' emphasis on poverty, which could be a political gamble. The theme is an extension of his "Two Americas" message from his 2004 campaign, in which he talked about the nation's inequalities. Two years ago, Edwards created the Center on Poverty, Work and Opportunity at UNC-Chapel Hill.
The campaign experienced its first glitch on Wednesday, a day before it formally came into existence.
Edwards' campaign accidentally went live Wednesday with his election Web site, The Associated Press reported.
The slip-up gave an unintended double meaning to his campaign slogan on the John Edwards '08 Web site: "Tomorrow begins today." Aides quickly shut down the errant Web site.
Several questions remain as Edwards begin his White House quest:
HAS EDWARDS' MOMENT PASSED? Edwards was the new face in 2004, and some voters liked his sunny persona. But some may view Edwards as a bit shopworn. He failed to help carry the Kerry-Edwards ticket anywhere in the South, including his home state of North Carolina.
"A lot of folks are going to view his candidacy and strategy in the context of the Kerry-Edwards campaign," said Dick Hartpootlian, a former South Carolina Democratic chairman. "Many people, including myself, thought it was a strategic disaster. They wrote off huge parts of the country, including South Carolina. ... It's going to be very difficult for Southerners to forget that snub."
The good news for Edwards is that polling suggests that Democrats tend to blame Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, not Edwards, for losing to Bush.
"The most encouraging thing for Edwards is he came out of '04 with a good bit of residual good will, particularly in Iowa, and Kerry had none" said Cook. "He came out of it as well or better than anybody had any right to hope for."
DOES EDWARDS HAVE THE PROPER SEASONING? One of the knocks on Edwards in 2004 was that he lacked the experience to be president. Edwards has served only one six-year term in the Senate and has never held an executive post. But Edwards has been globe-hopping during the past two years, meeting with foreign leaders in an effort to broaden his resume.
CAN EDWARDS WIN THE ANTI-WAR VOTE? Edwards was booed when he appeared before California Democrats during the last election because of his vote for a resolution authorizing the war in Iraq. Edwards has since said his vote was a mistake, and he has courted the anti-war bloggers who backed Howard Dean in 2004.
WILL ORGANIZED LABOR HELP EDWARDS? Edwards had little labor support when he ran in 2004. But since then, Edwards has been heavily courting labor -- walking the picket lines and participating in a campaign to pressure Wal-Mart to treat its workers better. He is expected to name former Michigan congressman David Bonior, a key labor ally, as his campaign manager. Labor could play an important role in the Iowa and Nevada caucuses.
But labor no longer has the clout that it once had.
"The last time labor got their candidate was Walter Mondale," said Todd, the Political Hotline editor, referring to the Democratic nominee in 1984.
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