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Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: loantech who wrote (70491)	12/28/2006 9:18:46 PM
From: zoo york	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 312609

Thanks Slan! Speaking of returns, I wanted to point out an interesting observation. The biggest winners in my PF have been the stocks that I do not include in my top picks list. I did some thinking about that, and part of the reason is that so much of the performance of the juniors is based on unknown outcomes. For example, 15 minutes before ARU came out with the first batch of good results, how many people had expected it to be a big winner? ARU is not one of my stocks but I point it out just for the obvious illustration. I noticed from the 2006 stock picking contest on my forum that few of the top juniors for the year were selected by members for the contest. I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that the biggest winners in a year, on a percentage basis, are the stocks that start out as low priced penny stocks. For a company to go from 15 cents to $1.50 is a huge percentage move, but a relatively small net gain. So those who buy the really obscure penny stocks tend to win the contests, but unfortunately, most of those type of stocks trade in the pennies for a reason. We hear about the big winners like AUN and UC, but there are so many lagging stocks that go nowhere. Lastly, I will comment on my personal philosophy. I am reluctant to include some of my 'riskier' picks in my lists because I know that some people are going to be buying them just because they saw them on a forum, no matter how much you try to point out that everyone needs to do their own research to ensure that the stock picks make sense to them. I do not need to have a few people lose money on one of my choices, and then resent me forever after. I put my own money on the line an own shares in all of my picks, and I accept that some of the choices will not work out, but the overall PF gains are fantastic nonetheless. So when I make a list, I tend to screen out some of the most 'dangerous' stocks even though I may have high expectations for them. Conversely, I know that the least risky picks are also less likely to outperform the market, so the conservative stocks like SPM, CS, and FR were left off my list this year. I just try to make a snapshot of the juniors that I think offer the best mix of upside potential and lower risk for a downside disappointment. If you own a basket of juniors, then in a bull market, you will probably do just fine unless you really do not have a good handle on how to research companies. A handfull of bad picks will be offset by the 5 and 10 baggers in the mix. cheers! COACH247 PS: I have way more SPM, CS, and IPT in my PF that all of my picks, except for UC which is my biggest holding. So I am not trying to just pump my own stocks. Year over year performance is what matters, and I still own most of the same core holdings for several years. It is not worth the effort for me to pound the table and then try to take profits. Screw it! I am doing just fine hanging around, buying the dips, and just let others try to be the smart traders.