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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis With Charts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MACD X who wrote (3722)	12/29/2006 5:11:07 AM
From: jaker	Respond to of 6865

Bears need a lower low, heard that about a zillion times... h1.ripway.com

To: MACD X who wrote (3722)	12/29/2006 5:50:03 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6865

Hi vernie, I haven't had much time to post lately but I try to follow the thread when I can. Keep up the good work, gang! As to semis taking off and the nasdaq falling, I think this would be a very unusual combination to occur simultaneously. The forward views on the semi industry are for a relatively flat 2007 and decent strength in 2008 (fundamentally speaking). If this is true, then there could be a very weak start to 2007 for the semis and a rebound as the year goes forward, when the anticipation of a good 2008 starts to get baked into the stocks. There are some compelling charts in your lists and from a chart view only, I would agree that the setups are, in general, looking good for a bull move. Since the semis are a big part of the nasdaq, I find it difficult to see how they would buck the trend of a falling nasdaq index. For them to "swim upstream" while the rest of the market is falling seems like a bit of a stretch. As always, an individual sector could buck the trend of the overall market, so this caveat should be considered. I think that the trends you have marked in your semi chart list should be watched carefully and breakouts (or breakdowns) given strong consideration. One last note: the semi collapse of a few years ago put a large dark cloud over the sector. The fact that many semi companies also have had options backdating scandals hasn't helped. Similarly, the options giveaways to the insiders of these companies tends to border on the excessive. This puts a damper on earnings and is a continuous dilutive process. Many of these companies have to spend an enormous amount of money on capital expenditures and competition is very stiff. All of these issues need to be considered when looking at a semi company's fundamentals vs. stock's technicals, imo. I'm probably not saying anything new but these are factors in the sector's performance (or lack thereof). Since this is basically a TA thread, some of these issues don't really matter. The trend is your friend! Have a happy New Year everyone and best of luck with your trades and timing!! TO