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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (13124)	12/31/2006 12:25:51 PM
From: Slagle	Respond to of 219924

TJ, You have done great, as usual, and there is surely nothing wrong with 16%. I haven't done that well this year though I did better that the year before, lots better depending on how you count some real estate I sold. And I want to thank you for some leads you gave us, I am still in Record (now Allco Finance) and may hold for a while. ERA was another good one. Wish I could return the favor in some way but these days I am just out of ideas. I am at about 20% cash and think I will let things ride for a while. As usual there are lots of danger signs. And of course, I will continue to accumulate gold, slowly but surely, but probably Eagles instead of Pandas. <grin> But the point I was making is that I believe that you, me and others hurt our returns by being excessively cautious, and I do believe there is a sort of "contagion" that gets out of hand when everybody is posting all this gloomy stuff. Think about this TJ, all during the 1970's any reasonable and informed American investor was just SURE that we were headed to complete economic and even physical destruction, probably sooner than later. The cold war was at its peak and probably most dangerous stage and it looked like there would be endless strife with the Soviets and their proxies everywhere. And the threat of nuclear war was not just an abstraction, it was VERY REAL, and many of us lived at ground zero for such a horrific occurrence. I know for a fact, from inside sources, that there was at least one American president of this era who was fairly certain of this outcome. Now compare the current theoretical threats to the world economy. I really don't think they amount to much, by comparison. But still, stock and other investments made back in the worst of those days, from the early 1970's, have had fabulous returns. I know elderly folks who have US largecaps in their portfolios that have gains of 30 to even 50 fold. But NO REASONABLE PERSON in 1970 would have predicted such an outcome. I suppose you could say that the markets have gone no where in the last seven years, inflation adjusted. But you get that result when measuring things against the peak of the bubble in 1999 and 2000. BTW, on ear infections, try this: Dilute distilled vinegar 50% with water, add maybe 20% alcohol and for adults, just a dab of iodine, just enough to give the solution a light tea color. After swimming squirt a bit of this in both ears, so protected you can swim anywhere without worry of ear infection. Even Hong Kong harbor, I think Maurice was giving you a hard time about the water there. <grin> This might not help inner ear infections that sometimes result from a cold, but it might, as sometimes this spreads to the outer ear. Great for a kid who has repeated ear infection problems. Good for pets too. The vinegar returns the natural acidity to the ear canal that medicines sometimes removes. Slagle