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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (13151)	12/30/2006 6:00:46 PM
From: KyrosL	Respond to of 220085

They are learning from Bush.

To: carranza2 who wrote (13151)	12/30/2006 8:03:20 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 220085

<<China considers the renegade province a military threat?>> I think … By application of normal and direct logic, to the first order, Taiwan is of course not and cannot be a military threat to the mainland. However, any political master in Beijing must necessarily act should Taiwan declare formal independence, else willing to be sent packing to early retirement by some other political master willing to act. In such schema, Taiwan is of course a threat to mainland, in that Taiwan political masters can, in practice, declared formal independence at any time. Beijing’s task is to convince Taipei that what can be done in practice is best limited to theory, and what can be sounded out in theory is best kept to absolute silence. The policy statements out of Beijing can all be viewed as part of the exercise pertaining to the task In the short term (<10 years) Taiwan can also be the spark of an international incidence between USA/Japan on the one hand and China on the other, and so, by the same above logic, Taipei regime is a threat to Tokyo and Washington, in that at any moment, Taipei can choose to limit Washington and Tokyo’s spectrum of options. Between Tokyo, Beijing, Taipei, and Hong Kong, they have USD 2.5 trillion of forex reserve, enormous on-going trade flows, and perhaps 35-45% of global manufacturing capacity, and any accident involving such a basket, even if only limited to a matter of market confidence, would ruin somebody’s bid-less morning. China is not concerned about Taiwan in the long term, because time is not with the Taipei officialdom of whatever flavor, as money, talents, students, retirees, and businesses gush out of the place and heads for the mainland. 5% of the population so far, and no one knows what % of fund flow. I think it is fair to say that any Taiwan high school students not heading overseas, to the east or west, will be a globalization victim.