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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (7493)	1/3/2007 12:19:11 AM
From: Jon Koplik	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 33421

Year 2007 prediction # 1 -- copper price will fall 50% (or more) .............................. All this will do is : get it back to the price it was at in 2004, when supply demand fundamentals were actually similar to (or even better than) ... right now. This 12/15/06 piece is typical : *********************************************************** Copper Drops After Decline in Euro-Zone Industrial Production By Claudia Carpenter and Chanyaporn Chanjaroen Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Copper dropped in London, heading for a third straight weekly decline, after industrial output unexpectedly fell in the countries sharing the euro, signaling reduced demand for the metal used in homes and cars. Industrial production in the euro zone fell 0.1 percent in October, Eurostat, the European Union's statistics office in Luxembourg, said today. A 0.4 percent gain was the median expectation of 32 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. ``The figures were a disappointment for the copper market,'' said Michael Widmer, London-based director of metals research at Calyon, one of 11 companies that trade on the floor of the London Metal Exchange. ``The euro-zone growth was seen as supporting the market.'' Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange fell $30, or 0.4 percent, to $6,740 a metric ton at 12:21 p.m. local time. Prices are down 2 percent this week. The metal has declined 22 percent since trading at a record $8,800 on May 11 amid a slowdown in manufacturing and housing demand in the U.S., the world's second-largest user of copper. Copper may fall next week as increasing stockpiles have renewed speculation that supply may be outpacing demand. Eight of 16 analysts, investors and traders surveyed by Bloomberg News yesterday and Dec. 13 forecast copper will fall next week. Five expected little change and three gains. Inventory tracked by commodity exchanges in London, New York and Shanghai climbed to 230,561 tons, the highest since July 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Production exceeded demand by 306,000 tons in the 10 months through October, the Ware, England-based World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Dec. 13. Lead Mine Closure Lead gained $10, or 0.6 percent, to $1,675 a ton. BHP Billiton Ltd. said today it closed Cannington, the world's largest lead mine, after a death at the unit in northern Australia. The mine in Queensland state will be closed indefinitely during an investigation, Emma Meade, a spokeswoman for the Melbourne-based company, said. The mine produced 266,321 tons of lead in the year ended June 30. It also produced 38.4 million ounces of silver concentrate and 68,779 tons of zinc. ``The Cannington closure is due to a fatality and may not lead to a long closure,'' Widmer said. Among other metals traded on the LME, aluminum fell $22 to $2,842 a ton, nickel slipped $250 to $34,500 and zinc slipped $40 to $4,310. Tin gained $50 to $11,100 a ton. To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net . Last Updated: December 15, 2006 07:37 EST ************************************************************ The only thing keeping copper (and a lot of other commodities) "up" now is (in my opinion) : All of the talk from Goldman Sachs / Jim Rogers / etc. about how one must be sure to be long commodities; since it is just great, great, great, even though most commodities are pretty much unchanged to down in price from 30 years ago. Jon.