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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (76922)	1/1/2007 4:09:41 PM
From: andiron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

well, for one the MEW is still alive.. w/ roughly ~200 billion expected in 2007!! That is ~1-1.5% of GDP right there. MEW cumulatively running ~1.5 Trillion dollars since 2003.. My mechanic friend says: they are making money out of money.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (76922)	1/1/2007 4:51:24 PM
From: Nibbler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

You make excellent points and they stand on their own merit. What you describe is indeed what is happening right now, and I suspect it will continue to occur until that "dynamic" changes in some form or another. I would think that everyone would view this situation a bit differently depending on their personal perspective and financial situation. As for me, our family (wife,3kids) could be viewed as on the edge of what what Russ would call "Bully Wannabe" and "Brazil America". Being a software engineer, I spent a year out of work a few years ago which has left me leaning towards being risk adverse. In my current job I make less per year than I did in 2000. So we went the way of the buying the more modest paid off home and no debt rather than push the envelope with the McMansion and toys. I guess this would best describe me as a "Brazil America Unwannabe (BAU)" So from a perspective of a BAU, I read this thread with the hope of determining the best course of action for our investable assets. I could just pour them into the market and most likely get the highest return. Will the ROI be significantly greater than 5% TBills to make it worth the risk? Is the risk of not being invested in the market make it a losing game to hold TBills? What is the risk that the "dynamic" will change like a derivative event or that the housing market may cause a credit event? Figuring out those answers are whats important to me. I could care less about the semantics of deflation/inflation and trying to prove other people wrong, I would just like to become better informed about what is currently happening and what may happen in the future.