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Politics : The Environmentalist Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TigerPaw who wrote (8788)	1/3/2007 10:29:43 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36921

<According to the U.S. navy the ice melt has been accelerating. > It didn't say that in the url you gave: <Summary and Conclusions Using a regional, coupled ice-ocean model of the Pan-Arctic region forced with the prescribed atmospheric fields from ECMWF for 1979-98 we have simulated two large scale shifts in the ice-ocean circulation. A cyclonic shift is modeled in the late 1980s / early 1990s in qualitative agreement with observations. A new opposite trend in the late 1990s is predicted though it is yet to be verified with data. A continuation of model integration beyond the year 2000 with realistic atmospheric forcing is necessary to conclusively determine the pattern of recent changes. Atmospheric variability appears to be the dominant dynamic driver of modeled changes. The sea ice cover appears to be an effective medium for vertical momentum transfer from the atmosphere into the upper ocean. The energy flux from the arctic atmosphere into the sea ice and ocean provides sufficient forcing to drive changes qualitatively similar to those known from hydrographic observations. At the same time, the absence of the global interannual thermohaline forcing signal from outside of the model domain suggests that its influence on the recently observed changes has a secondary role. Such a conclusion, as yet unverified, requires use of global ice-ocean and climate models with proper representation of the Arctic Ocean and feed back processes between the atmosphere, the sea ice and the ocean underneath. On the other hand, results from this regional coupled ice-ocean model prove that global ocean and climate studies can no longer neglect the Arctic Ocean and its multi-year ice cover. > Mqurice