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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: maceng2 who wrote (68804)	1/4/2007 8:42:02 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

I'm talking major stock indices rather than PM stocks or any other specific sector. 3rd year of presidential cycle in the US is usually a strong year. But we haven't seen a 20% correction to end the bull market since 2002. So that could come at some point in the year and then a bounce back. 1962 ( think) was another example of a 5 year bull and a sharp break. On USD I think we are starting the final wave down. I would look to buy USD now or soon rather than sell. Predicting currencies short term is very hard though but purchasing power parity can give some long-term idea. The pound etc. are very expensive at these levels. I'm getting my Mom to switch some funds from Pounds and Euro to a USD account with a view to buying US stocks after a correction. I won't be buying any more Aussie Dollar and accumulate my savings in USD (I still have 2/3 of net worth in the AUD and 1/4 only in USD connected). Economy-wise certainly there is good reason to expect a recession but OTOH maybe we do see a repeat of the 1980s and 1990s mid-cycle slowdowns in the US.