Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (25659)	1/6/2007 4:59:15 AM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78667

CHK is going to make lots of money in the coming years. I really think its silly that the company seems to be valued now on the basis of two weeks of projected weather. What seems clear to me is that several candian and american majors are reducing their cap ex for gas drilling . That coupled with production of oil from the oil sands ventures, which will absorb lot of canadian NG means that there will be a lot less canadian gas available for export over the next years. I bought CHK leaps on friday as I see NG sub $10 as temporary.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (25659)	1/30/2007 10:02:46 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78667

VLO valuation TSO purchase price for Shells' LA refinery: 1.63B$ for 100,000B/Day translates into 16,000$/barrel. Also TSO pays for the inventory separately. VLO has an EV value of 36B$ and owns 3.3 million B/Day refining capacity. I subtract 4B$ in inventory (as this is accounted separately in most refinery purchases). So VLO I calculate VLO $/barrel capacity at: (36B$-4B$)/3,3M=9700$/barrel. CA refineries mostly have above average profitability so I assume they trade at a premium. On the other hand 100,000B/Day is a small refinery in a business where big is better. I have not seen a recent refinery transaction in NA below 13,000$/barrel capacity. Based on these back of the envelope calculations VLO is trading at least 30% below private market value.