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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan Smithee who wrote (16204)	1/8/2007 10:09:21 PM
From: Peter Dierks	Respond to of 71588

I have some concern about the credibility of a person who publishes the Gloom and Doom report being an important source of market analysis. I have been a Morgan Stanly customer for years. They CYA's in the 1990 by publishing two economic outlooks every week in their investment letter, one bullish and the other bearish. That having been said: Message 20773929 I have been looking for signs of an economic slowdown. One should expect the market to efficiently process economic data. The next President is an important economic indicator. The probability of a democrat in the Whitehouse in 2009 has increased since democrats gained control of Congress, thus the markets should react badly. LWEs often enjoy pointing to graphs of stock market performance using inauguration as the decision point. Any student of the markets will recognize the error of the decision point. It is actually quite easy to speculate that is intentional. The correct decision point obviously is incrementally recognized as the election results are probable. Thus is next week there is a 10% greater likelihood of a democrat in the Whitehouse, the market will go down between now and then. Once the results are determined, the personality in the Whitehouse becomes irrelevant to the extent they do not tinker with the market. For an example of this look at say the S&P 500 versus MO during Clinton's terms.