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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robohogs who wrote (9899)	1/8/2007 11:45:59 PM
From: Robohogs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10280

Just got done summing the numbers for Lunesta, the 13 weeks ended with 1.75 million raw weekly scrips, which should equate to just under 1.88 million adjusted scrips (could be 1.9 mm but this adjustment factor has been sharply trending down). Based on last quarter, we are talking growth in raw numbers of 11%. Versus last year, we are talking 22% in demand growth but only something like 4-5% when factoring in the inventory growth a year ago. Adding 4-5% to last year's number (assuming NO price increase stuck when weighing the price gain vs couponing vs. recent trends) yields $152 MM. Using the 11% QoQ yields $154 MM. So the published number will likely fall between $150-155 MM but pricing moves and inventory moves and couponing moves have made this number hard to quantify recently. Side note - SSB is looking for 17% YoY growth in Lunesta from its scrips plus pricing data but that gives full credit to pricing and assumes no slippage in adjustment factor and misses the inventory build a year ago. SSB has 15% for Xopenex which is a bit above my 12%. On MDI, I have the quarter at just under 380K scrips which yields $15 MM at $40 per scrip (may be high but likely offset by scrips not captured in sampling). This scrip number is up 50% QoQ. My best guesses are $10 royalties, $150 lunesta, 15 MDI, and $165 for neb. This yields $340 MM. This compares to $281 MM last quarter after backing out the $8 MM of reserve reversals. The $180 MM of all Xopenex compares to $135 MM (after reversal of reserve) in last quarter. This brings 2006E to $1.18 MM (did not back out reserves assuming they were offsets against each other). Total Xopenex would be $575 MM, Lunesta would be $570 MM and royalties at $35 MM. This beats company forecasts I think, by about $50 MM. I would think this should yield profits of just under $1 in Q4 and about $1.75 for the year. Jon