White House 2008 Rankings
© National Journal Group Inc.
Thursday, Jan. 11, 2007
nationaljournal.com
Every Republican in this race knows that the '08 election will be a referendum on Iraq, and President Bush will be a ghostly presence on the ballot. For the next six months -- at least -- it'll be hard to talk about anything else. If you bracket Iraq, though, you start to see a very interesting dynamic shaping up between Gov. Mitt Romney and Sen. Sam Brownback.
(A note: starting today, each ranking – Democrats and Republicans -- will be updated every two weeks. So we’ll do the Democrats next week.)
These rankings are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling. As always, they are done in coordination with Hotline Associate Editor Marc Ambinder.
REPUBLICANS
1. John McCain
Arizona senator Last Ranking: 1
John McCain BCS coin tosses and the attendant publicity are great for the general election and add to the front-runner's aura. But on Iraq, McCain has, in the words of one adviser, put all his chips on Red 7 and won't know where the ball lands until a year from now. McCain's been calling for a surge for two years now, and he knows the "it wasn't big enough" caveat won't save him if Iraq remains a chaotic mess next January. Question: if Iraq stays unpopular and the nominating contest begins to focus on the war, how long until McCain's national numbers start to crater? Almanac Profile
2. Mitt Romney
Former Massachusetts governor Last Ranking: tied for 2
Mitt Romney A week after opening his exploratory committee, Romney had 60 paid staffers working out of his North End office, $6.5 million in pledges and a DeMinty-fresh endorsement in South Carolina. These are great things. It's ample evidence that he's a serious, competent candidate who can raise a lot of money and, by his own efforts and talents, chase McCain for the nomination. A great January, structurally, is what Romney needed after an awful December.But here's what Romney doesn't have: an Iraq policy. He's going to try to wait until late February to articulate a position, and if he's not careful, McCain will make sure that his silence (born from an issue insecurity? Political calculation? Genuine indecision?) is broadcast widely. Almanac Profile
3. Rudy Giuliani
Former New York City mayor Last Ranking: tied for 2
Rudy Giuliani There are basic standards of transparency the media expects from presidential candidates. One is: your business partners must be willing to have their client lists scrutinized. You must be willing to answer questions and provide documentation about the companies you've advised and, within reason, the advice you've given. There is no distinction between "private" corporate work and public policy positions. This drives candidates crazy, but that's what's great about Iowa and New Hampshire in particular. Even national heroes aren't above -- they can't be above -- the daily meet and greets, the strenuous grind of a campaign, the organizational tasks and the probing questions from voters. By the way, where is Rudy on Iraq?
4. Sam Brownback
Kansas senator Last Ranking: 5
Sam Brownback For sheer doggedness, and because he really is -- all at once now -- "the only unquestioned social conservative in the race," he's settled in to our number four slot. Signing up seven conservatives in Massachusetts the same day Romney raised his $6.5 million won Brownback a very prominent mention in the Boston Globe. When he announces on January 20, Brownback will try to break the stereotype -- he'll talk about the environment and poverty, and immigration. He's running a campaign that takes the GOP base seriously and treats voters as three dimensional beings who care about abortion but don't just care about abortion. We like morally serious candidates. By the way, notice how all of Brownback's digs seem to be at Romney's expense. He's staying away from McCain for a reason. Almanac Profile
5. Newt Gingrich
Former House speaker Last Ranking: 4
Newt Gingrich He just wrote a book called "Rediscovering God In America," but many conservative observers believe Gingrich's biggest problem on the Right is that he doesn't really believe in the principles underpinning the social conservatism that so prominently engages the GOP base. We think that Gingrich is watching the candidacy of Romney most closely. If Romneyand his ideas catch fire, Gingrich may find himself irrelevant, or succeeded by Romney as the GOP's best "ideas guy." The most likely scenario in which Gingrich gets in the race is if Romney is clearly faltering by this summer.
6. Mike Huckabee
Former Arkansas governor Last Ranking: 6
Mike Huckabee His fun new book should give him a bit of a national platform, but it's hard for us to rank Huckabee that highly. There's been some talk that he'll be the breakout candidate in Iowa but you can't get there from here if you lack money and organization. South Carolina may be easier, given his orthodoxy, but if he's not careful, Brownback will sew up the remaining social conservative endorsements there. Organizing in Ames ain't bean-bag, and it's not cheap. Here's the other knock: Huckabee has been a successful governor, but it's Romney who has closed a budget gap, given his residents health care, and actually fought liberals to preserve heterosexual marriage. So Huck needs some luck; he can't rely on his Arkansas accomplishments to break through. Almanac Profile
7. Chuck Hagel
Nebraska senator Last Ranking: 7
Chuck Hagel He's definitely got the niche, but it's a bad sign that he's not being regularly booked on the chat shows, and as far as we know, he's not, you know, doing anything to lay the groundwork for a presidential bid. Still, other than McCain, he's the only other "candidate" talking about the number one issue in the land. Almanac Profile
8. Tommy Thompson
Former Wisconsin governor Last Ranking: tied for 8
Tommy Thompson He became the first candidate to bash Bush (calling him a "good" but not "great" president). If that's the only way he gets attention, he'll have trouble convincing the rest of the field that's he's anything but a vanity candidate. He'll be able to raise a bit of early money, but most of his donors will be sympathetic friends and double-dippers.
9. Frank Keating
Former Oklahoma governor Last Ranking: tied for 8
Frank Keating Americans love life insurance, right? Well...
10. Jim Gilmore
Former Virginia governor Last Ranking: tied for 8
Jim Gilmore Let's not underestimate his access to some national donors. He was Republican National Committee chairman, after all. And Virginia is home to a lot of free-agent Republican donors.
11. Duncan Hunter
California congressman Last Ranking: --
Duncan Hunter The Iraq hearings will give him the chance to raise his profile. Depending on what happens, he may wind up being technically closer to Bush on Iraq than McCain. Also, he's a Southern Baptist, which might help open some doors in South Carolina. His biggest problem is Dennis Kucinich, the Democratic gadfly candidate whom Hunter will find himself paired with all too often by the media. Almanac Profile |
