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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (757289)	1/13/2007 5:30:06 PM
From: DuckTapeSunroof	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 769670

"How come no one in Washington sees this?" I am certain that there is NOTHING I have posted that the Pentagon is not extremely aware of, has not game-planned out. No doubt a number of Washington 'think tanks' have also. But, especially with politicians and lobbyists, they all have their own goals, and their own preconceptions.... And, it is a COMMON FLAW to have people always planning to, in effect, 'fight the last war' (and not think creatively about the future). And, the News Media? Routinely INCOMPETENT. (We should never expect much in the way of creative thinking from them). One of the things that bugs me the most is all the Talking Heads I routinely see on the TV these days --- most repeating the exact same nostrums, and the exact same 'conventional wisdom' --- and with exactly the same ZERO LEVEL of PROOF for their contentions, their 'politically correct' opinions about what is possible or what will happen in the future. For example: 'everyone' says, "If we pull our forces back from trying to stop the Sunnis and the Shia from fighting out a civil war in Iraq, there will be a great disaster." I say: prove it. And, I say that the term 'disaster' depends LARGELY upon exactly WHO'S ox is getting gored! Will there be even more bloodshed among Sunni and Shiite extremists and radicals (as the two power blocs fight to draw new political lines, and fight for control over the wealth)? Yes. That's highly likely, in the short-run. (Though that will likely also hasten a lasting long-term peace in the region.) Sometimes you have to break eggs to make omlets. But... does that mean that it will be a 'disaster' for US and Western strategic interests? Hell no! Long-term (& perhaps even quicker) it is likely to be a huge boon for our strategic interests: In the short-term --- extremists would be pitted against each other, diverted from attacking our guys by the exigencies of their NEW CRISIS, the expanded inter-regional civil war in Iraq. In the mid-term --- oil prices would fall globally as BOTH sides pumped full-out to try to keep their heads above water and finance their war efforts. (Saudi Arabia has already warned that they would pump full-out to lower oil prices to try to weaken the Iranians... deprive them of the money they would need to fight the Sunnis. Saudi Arabia has ALSO stated that it would step up it's support for the Sunni battles against the Shia, and so would many/most of the other Gulf Sunnis.) In the long-term--- new, more stable political boundaries would be drawn through the territory of old 'Iraq', but both sets of extremists would lose massive amounts of their people's blood and national wealth, most likely disgracing the extremism causes and their allure on the region's streets, likely giving an opening to a new political respect for moderation and pluralism, possibly toppling both the corrupt Saud Monarchs, their extremist Whabbist Sunni supporters, and the Iranian Shiite Theocracy. Quite possibly not only will more Western-thinking governments emerge in the region... but the long-overdue Islamic Reformation will finally emerge. (Just as it did in Western Europe centuries ago - birthed in the wasteful blood of generations of inter-religious civil warfare.) As a further point of comparison, I ask the question "Was the decade-long Iran/Iraq Gulf War a 'disaster' for US interests?" HELL NO. Although it was extremely harmful for those two nations (one million killed, their armies ruined and nation treasure poured down the drain) it produced MAJOR BENEFITS for the West. BOTH the Theocratic government in Iran AND Saddam's Dictatorship each came within inches of collapsing (before the war was nudged to a halt). Global oil prices reached NEW LOWS and economic growth in the oil consuming West soared for YEARS. In fact, arguably, if the war had been allowed to play out, likely none of the subsequent disagreeable events vis a vie the West would have happened --- and their would now be a clear front and dividing line between Shiites and Sunnis, and each side would have many more reasons to support pluralism, moderation, and friendship with the West. (Current events may be our second, and perhaps last, best chance and bringing about a win/win for the world.)