To: Mike Johnston who wrote (77867 ) 1/18/2007 12:38:12 PM From: orkrious Respond to of 110194 @gold's real price -- trotsky, 11:23:59 01/18/07 Thu as can be seen from the charts below, gold's real price has embarked on a clear uptrend: gold vs. base metals gold vs. oil gold vs. CRB index this means more for gold miner margins than strong rallies in the nominal price that do not result in an improving real price. it's curious that the gold stocks haven't responded yet, but i suspect that funds and traders that dabble in commodities have been subjected to some forced selling across the board due to the collapse in crude and copper - iow., the gold shares will probably respond with a lag to this improvement in margins. in short, once those that are buying and selling for the wrong reasons are out of the market, prices should begin to get marked up somewhat. @pm sentiment -- trotsky, 10:17:09 01/18/07 Thu the cumulative Rydex pm fund cash flow ratio has plunged to a fresh multi-year low at 139 points. this can only be interpreted as bullish, as it shows that the public is more or less out of the sector, in spite of the fact that the gold indices are basically in a consolidation phase. @pm stocks -- trotsky, 10:11:32 01/18/07 Thu good grief. slip-sliding away again after an over-optimistic open. yet another bear throws the towel -- trotsky, 10:08:33 01/18/07 Thu the last hold-out among mainstream economists in the bear camp, Stephen Roach, is about to throw the towel: "After four years of booming global growth, I have argued that the world is due for a rest -- not a hard landing but a marked slowdown from the strongest surge since the early 1970s. The verdict in the early days of 2007 is that I could well be wrong." first Bernstein, now Roach - the bear suits are packed awaymorganstanley.com