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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Umunhum who wrote (78299)	1/18/2007 3:24:08 PM
From: whitepine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206336

New Ice Age.... Umnunhum........did you read this? english.pravda.ru

To: Umunhum who wrote (78299)	1/18/2007 3:31:22 PM
From: White Bear	Respond to of 206336

No problem!

To: Umunhum who wrote (78299)	1/19/2007 1:57:19 PM
From: Umunhum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206336

Here's an interesting trade that I have been kicking around in my head. Mexico's oil production is about 3.3 mbpd. The Cantarell's production was about 60% of that or roughly 2 mbpd in 2006. Internal government documents have stated that by the end of this year the Cantarell's production is going to drop to around 1.4 mbpd. Supposedly they have other fields that they are going to bring online to help mitigate some of this decline. The experts are all skeptical about them though. Mexico produced 3.3 mbpd in 2006. Mexico's daily consumption is just under 2 mbpd. I have read that the Mexican government gets somewhere around 70-80% of its revenue from PEMEX. (I lost the article - somebody correct me if I'm wrong) So basically Mexico gets around 75% of its funding from exporting around 1.35 mbpd of oil per day. About half of that is going to be lost to depletion in the next 12 months if they can't bring on additional production. And who knows how much the following year. Worst case scenarios place the Cantarell production at around 520,000 bpd at the end of 2008. There is no doubt Mexican exports of oil are going to drop going forward. The only question is how fast? I don't see how the Mexican Peso is going to survive. futuresource.com It is going to be interesting to track Mexico's production going forward: eia.doe.gov It is also probably a good idea to buy some Mexican ocean front property or a nice vacation condo with an ocean view. Just make sure you take out a big loan on it denominated in Pesos.