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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (62309)	1/19/2007 12:08:02 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 116555

>>The economy is very strong right now.<< But the rate of growth in the sale of electric generators for the home is very strong here <g>

To: mishedlo who wrote (62309)	1/19/2007 12:19:31 PM
From: jimmg	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 116555

There is IMO no realistic way to look at things and conclude the economy is strong. 1. Weekly unemployment claims near all-time low. 2. Job openings at cycle high. 3. Individual company sales/earnings reports very strong. GE new orders up 19% yoy, Walmart, Target, Costco, Nordstrom, JC Penney, Gamestop, and on and on all report record sales and earnings. 4. Real wage gains are at cycle high. 5. Lower oil and gas freeing up discretionary spending dollars. 6. All-time high corporate cash flows going into share repurchases and shrinking the overall equity base. I can go on for a long time. You get the picture. I have no problem accepting the argument that current strength in unsustainable but to argue that the economy isn't currently robust lacks credibility. The stock market is soaring because average Americans are spending like there is no tomorrow. Most bears think it's all a conspiracy by Pig Man, Da Boyz, the Cabal, Goldman Sachs or whoever.

To: mishedlo who wrote (62309)	1/19/2007 1:14:43 PM
From: Sunny Jim	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

The consumers are certainly happy campers. What's amazing to me is that oil prices have fallen rather dramatically yet the price of gasoline in my part of the country is still rather high. The other night on the national news, they did a blurb on prices remaining high because of FIFO. I guess the public sees that and says OK. They still can't spend any price decrease in gasoline on anything else though. My point is, I don't think things are as good as the consumer sentiment survey says they are. I tend to think we might be seeing the calm before the storm, but I've been wrong so far. Just have to wait and see.