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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (33875)	1/19/2007 6:38:09 PM
From: Woody_Nickels	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 96109

How often does BtB rise .09 or more? Looking at Don's data it hasn't happened since the Nov-Dec 2003 SOX bottom. (BtB DROPS more than .09 more often) If you look at .09 rises prior to '03, they seem to correlate more with short-term peaks than bottoms. Nov-Dec '03 - SOX bottom Nov-Dec '02 - SOX s/t peak Mar-Apr '02 - SOX s/t peak Feb-Mar '02 - SOX s/t peak Jan-Feb '02 - SOX s/t peak Jun-Jul '01 - SOX s/t peak Not sure that this is a valid analysis, since the markets were so messed up in '01 and '02. Just a quick answer to a question posed to myself. Woody

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (33875)	1/20/2007 12:47:56 PM
From: etchmeister	Respond to of 96109

BtB is up over 1, and orders for Dec are up about 100M compared to November. Unfortunately that's what the sell side is looking for: the sell side pundits are already fretting how 07 is frontend loaded and how fundamentals are going to hell in a bucket in the second half. As long as cycle mentality prevails as a dominate factor we might get a deja vu. However though LRCX got hammered for pushouts these pushouts might come in very handy in the second half (as long as they materialize). The analysts (and professional traders) will try everything to maintain/promote a cycle only mentality as the dominate factor (like it or not) because the cycle justifies their existence and opens the door for trading profits. Neither GS nor ML likes semis but sure they would like the profits from trading semi stocks. It was selloff but actually we have to go back only six month: finance.yahoo.com The short term reaction six months ago was as bad as a couple days ago. (Six months ago Newberry gave a very positive outlook (shortly after cc sharp upward revision of EPS) but they got slammed because supposedly for for discontinue to give bookings guidance starting Jan. 2007. Let's put some lipstick on the pig... remember?) However once the cc volatility settled the stock pulled itself out of the mud. Of course the bar is being set higher and higher. And so we have to deal with an analyst like Hodess who puts LRCX on shortlist because he thinks there is no room for further improvement. Pretty dull but something I have to live/invest with. I believe Jan. 2001 LRCX reported $ 500 million; there is a possibilty they can achieve a $700 million quarter (so much for GS's Covello about cyclical and growth cyclical - A HUGE miss for someone who considers himself as an expert); I never thought that LRCX could make that much money and achieve the kind of margins - but fortunately they do. Margins and operational efficiecies (sales $ per head)improved significantly). Perhaps LRCX should apply a wider range when giving guidance (just like KLAC). Last time he projected up 5% to 7% which seems to be a very narrow window; -5% to +5% should have done the trick