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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jimmg who wrote (62324)	1/19/2007 1:54:19 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

I really do not want to get into a pissing match. If you want to make a case that things are not as bad as bears point out then fine. But they are not as good as you pointed out and you seem to be willing to take low unemployment numbers as fact while not accepting low gdp as fact while chastising me about accepting govt figures. Personally I think GDP is politically manipulated higher because of hedonics and imputations and we could be in a recession right now if computed accurately. The stock market has little to do with being a leading indicator and I proved that without a doubt. Perhaps I do not know why gasoline prices are lower but perhaps you do not know either. While accusing bears of looking at pigmen manipulation of the stock market you seem to be doing a similar thing with crude. I doubt that anyone really knows what is the current up to date story on peak oil, but there is no question that les oil is used in slowing world economy and prices are set at the margin. But ignoring oil for a moment what does dr. copper say? There are enormous sign all over the place that say the economy is slowing. To deny it is pure silliness. Mish

To: jimmg who wrote (62324)	1/19/2007 1:55:31 PM
From: TimbaBear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

All-time low unemployment claims is telling you something and you refuse to acknowledge it. What it is telling me is that a lower percentage of American workers are covered by unemployment. The "service" economy means many more workers are working part-time jobs, while more still are considered 1099 or self-employed. Neither of those groups are entitled to collect when their source of income declines or goes away. Using unemployment numbers to gauge the health of the economy may help you feel righteous, but it is not likely to give one an accurate read of the employment situation. Timba