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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: neolib who wrote (33732)	1/20/2007 1:22:56 PM
From: JohnM	Respond to of 541918

Hmm, a quick response. Looks to me as if you are willing to allow for change in one respect--Dems become a target because they have the leadership role in the congress, while not allowing for change in another respect--Clinton remains a lightning rod to rally the base. In the first case, there are two factors that complicate the future you postulate. The first is how well the Dems actually perform in the leadership role in the congress. They can't govern; all they can do is be a much more effective loyal opposition. If they Reps trap them in votes against, for instance, funding troops in Iraq, that will certainly be a negative. But that's unlikely to happen since it's such an obvious. We'll just have to wait and see if there are future such. The second complicating factor is that the Bush administration still governs. And given their track record, and the way they are handling the results of the last election, they can be counted on to rally the independents to the Dem side. As for the second item, Clinton becoming a rallying cry for the further right, I agree that's unlikely to change. But the general politics of the country continue to change. It now looks as if the independent vote will be the critical one in 08. And Clinton's strategy is to focus on them. We'll just have to wait and see how effective she is in doing so. I just see much more indeterminateness than you do. With a definite Clinton upside.

To: neolib who wrote (33732)	1/20/2007 4:43:30 PM
From: Cogito	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 541918

>>Hillary is the best hope for the Reps in 2008. She will be the perfect lightening rod to rally the base.<< Neolib - Yes, a Hilary nomination would rally the Republican base. But as the elections of 2006 showed, the Republicans can't win with just their base. They need to pull the middle to their side as well. I think it remains to be seen whether Hilary will help them do that. Don't underestimate the power of a really well run campaign. Disclaimer: While I think Hilary may have a good chance of winning a general election, or at least a better chance than many people think she has, I wouldn't support her myself in the primaries. I disagree with her stances on too many issues. - Allen