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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (58818)	1/20/2007 8:49:37 PM
From: A.J. Mullen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197254

If QCOM lost the BRCM case and the price of QCOM shares remained substantially unchanged, I still can't predict or make a conjecture on what I would do. There are too many other factors affecting the stock, both from within the company and the industry and from outside...... ....I do not believe in instant reactions to a news event, unless I have a pretty good feel for what's going on inside and outside the company We have a very different attitude to investing. I agree that reflexive reactions are not a good idea. Those reflexive moves are often the cause of the irrational short-term movements. I try to plan ahead of time, making contingency plans to take advantage of any movements I perceive as irrational and likely to be short-term. Binary events are great opportunities to make decisions ahead of time because the outcomes are simpler. A court case is a decent approximation of a binary event, although when paired with the effect on stock prices it is clearly no longer binary. My original point was that I don't think this case is very important for Qcom, thus if the case were lost and the stock price fell substantially, I would buy because such a fall would be irrational. Presumably those who feel the case is important would expect the price to fall. If the losses were in the future then the expected losses and consequent fall should be discounted appropriately, but a significant fall would be rational if the case were lost and it was important. The last phrase is a tautology for me. I won't do anything if the case is lost and there's no substantial drop. It seems to me those, such as yourself, who think the case is important should expect a drop. If there's no drop after an important event, then the market has missed it and is thereby undervaluing the stock given the news. To do nothing when circumstances change without a commensurate change in a stock price - or when the stock price changes without any chnage of circumstance - is to allow irrational market fluctuations to determine share allocation. One point I did agree with rkral is that this is a dead horse. It's ironic that I suggested the case didn't warrant the time and energy being expended. Ashley