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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (77931)	1/21/2007 3:40:59 PM
From: bart13	Respond to of 110194

This is dealer activity at the discount window, and the data on MBS suggests those securities are being pledged as collateral. That sure is a better conjecture than anything I came up with, and also ties in well with other data and flows. Excellent point and possibility on the Home Loan Bank issue brought up by Brian. I'm unclear of what you're asking for on that frb discount window link. I'm a babe in the woods in that area - can you give me another hint or more specific link about which numbers you're trying to correlate to? What may also be happening is that debt service to foreigners has reached a point where money in the US keeps getting sucked abroad, with less of it available for internal deposit growth. If so it's ominous. I haven't seen much in the way of indications lately that the Treasury is running short... but it sure can change fast. Meanwhile most of the lending growth still underway has been in large measure speculative. Even there some of the last stage activity such as commercial and industrial lending is slowing dramatically. Here's my current picture on the various credit classes, for what its worth. The overall picture sure is very reminiscent of late 2000 & early 2001... bank credit is the only one that hasn't broken trend.