To: richardred who wrote (1526 ) 10/11/2007 11:39:34 AM From: richardred Respond to of 7253 Cadbury Schweppes demerges Wednesday October 10, 6:05 pm ET Time for plan B. With private equity's ability to buy Cadbury Schweppes (NYSE:CSG)' beverage business compromised by risk aversion in the credit markets, the confectionery group has reluctantly opted for a demerger. The door for a buyer is still very much open - management has until next spring to sort out the details of listing on the New York Stock Exchange - but a straight stock split now seems the most likely outcome. This provides clarity, at least, but will it improve share price performance? A US listing is logical, since the vast bulk of the business is in North America. Local equity valuations for beverage businesses are higher than in Europe but a discount to Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) and PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP) is likely. Both have fast-growing international businesses, while Cadbury is experiencing a "challenging US market". It will also be necessary to find buyers for stock that many European investors will be unable to hold. A 10 per cent discount suggests an enterprise valuation of only about £6.5bn, compared with the £7.5bn-£8bn mooted this year. The scope to gear up beverages to fund a special dividend, if financing conditions improve, looks limited as well. Coke and Pepsi are run with net debt to earnings before interest, tax, amortisation and depreciation of about 1.5 times. At group level, the Cadbury ratio is already almost two times. Similarly, the prospects of a bid emerging for its confectionary side remain slim, in spite of helpfully timed comments on Tuesday from the trust that controls US chocolate maker Hershey. But the trust's insistence on retaining voting control rules out a merger, and Hershey lacks the firepower for a full cash bid. So what next? Cadbury plans to lift margins, while maintaining growth. Third quarter sales, flattered by last year's UK salmonella scare, are encouraging, but higher raw material prices, chiefly for milk, are creating a headwind. Plan B, unfortunately, looks like business as normal.biz.yahoo.com